Daily write-up - Jan 18th

4 meetings today, at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland…

With no let up in the rain, the ground is likely to be desperate at the 3 UK tracks (slightly less so in Ireland), so it goes without saying, that horses will need to be able to handle the underfoot conditions and have plenty of stamina…

Todays racing seems particularly tight, with very little margin in the bookmakers early prices.

As was the case on Thursday, I didn’t have much trouble finding horses that I fancied – but finding some margin in the odds, was a little trickier…

I’ve ended up farming a trusted form line for a couple of the tips – plus siding with a couple of old friends.

When the going gets tough, I think it pays to stick with the things you know well…

In addition to the tips, there are a few mentions today – plus a couple of Top Picks. Let’s hope I’ve chosen to put the right ones on the official TVB account !!

Ascot

2:25

This is one of the few races today, with a shape that encourages you to bet in it…

The Skyfarmer was an impressive winner last time at Cheltenham but he’s been raised 17lb for that win. More than that, his trainer, Philip Hobbs, is on record saying that the horse prefers quick ground…

In the circumstances, he has to be taken on at 4/1…

Get Back in Line is a little trickier to dismiss – even though he was disappointing last time out.

I suspect he will be better suited to todays extra half mile on very heavy ground – although that is as yet unproven…

I think he has a chance, but 4/1 looks to over state it slightly…

Third favourite Bourne, has been well backed – but he’s an enigmatic character who doesn’t look particularly well handicapped.

I dare say he could win – but again, 6/1 looks plenty tight enough…

A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, but I’ve elected for small wagers on a couple of them…

My slight preference would probably be for Imperial Leader.

He was well backed on his seasonal debut at Newbury but was already starting to struggle when he made a bad mistake at the second last.

He will need to have improved for that run but if he can recapture the best of his form from last season, I think he will take the beating…

Imperial Leader beat the now 140 rated Balyalton on his hurdling debut at Southwell and followed that up with a cracking run in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham.

Without exception all of the horses that finished around him that day are now rated significantly higher and if Imperial Leader could repeat that form today, he would undoubtedly take the beating.

The fact that race was run on heavy ground (and Imperial Leader seemed to find the 2m trip on the short side) just adds to the case for him…

The other one I want on side is Thomas Crapper.

Already a winner of 2 decent handicaps at Cheltenham this season, he ran well in a third at that venue last time out, until tiring up the Cheltenham hill.

That race was over 3 miles whereas today he drops back to a trip similar to the one that he was twice successful over earlier.

He has proven his ability to handle heavy ground with a facile win at Towcester last season (and conditions don’t get much more desperate than they do there !) so conditions should hold no fears for him.

0.25pt win Imperial Leader 14/1

0.25pt win Thomas Crapper 10/1

3:00

We were on Tatenen when he bolted up on his seasonal debut at Newbury at the end of November…

As I said then, he was potentially a seriously well handicapped horse that day  - and even with a 12lb rise for that win, he is still on a mark from which he can be competitive.

That statement is supported by the fact that he has won the last 2 runnings of this very race, off marks of 137 and 143. Today he gets to run off a mark of 140…

The fact he was won this contest the last twice it was run (it was abandoned last year) also shows how well suited he is to both course and distance…

The biggest question mark today is probably the ground. However, I retain the image of him tanking along in a big handicap chase at the Cheltenham December meeting last season – and that race was run on desperate ground.
He ultimately faded out of contention that day – but I think that was because he ran too freely, not because he couldn’t cope with the surface.

In short, I think he has ticks in just about every box – and although we will be getting little more than a tenth of the price we got last time, I still think he is worth a play…

Of the opposition, then I am obviously a little wary of Renard (!) and Gus Macrea.

Both of these have been TVB tips this season – but they didn’t win when I tipped them so I hope they do the decent thing and don’t win again today !!

0.5pt win Tatenen 9/2

The big race of the day, is the Clarence House chase…

I hope – and think – that Somersby can win the race. However he has a bit to find with Sire De Grugy on form and at 7/2 there is no margin in his price.

Whilst in theory, it’s not just a 2 horse race, I personally struggle to see Hidden Cyclone as a top 2 miler – and the rest have a lot to do on the book.

Hopefully Somersby will come home in front – for Mick and Hen…

Maybe I missed a trick by not tipping in the window yesterday evening…

I think Kingcora has a big shout in the 1:15 race – and he was 9/2 last night.

However, he was only 4/1 in a couple of places early this morning – and 7/2 at 8:30.

There is a slight concern over his ability to reproduce his form just 4 days after a tough trace at Exeter – but Venetia’s horses tend to take their racing well…

I’ll make him a Top Pick.

I’m also going to make Mickie a Top Pick in the 1:50 race.

She is the clear form pick, so not surprisingly she is a relatively short priced favourite.

However, ground and trip will suit her admirably and I really think she will take the beating.

Hopefully there will be a late drift in her price and we can capitalise on that !!

Haydock

12:20

I can only imagine how desperate conditions will be at Haydock this afternoon – this could turn out be an absolute war…

As he’s already shown a few times in his relatively short career, Ugly Bug is a horse who relishes such conditions.

He has raced on heavy ground 4 times in his life and they have resulted in 2 wins and 2 second places…

His last time out run was on heavy ground at Chepstow and he finished second behind Awaywiththegreys.

That looked like a very strong race to me as it contained a number of the horses (including Ugly Bug himself) who had contested a similar handicap hurdle at Chepstow earlier that month.

Timeishard, Mallar Tree, Sarando and Virginia Ash all competed in that race – and this week Big Society added his name to the roll of honour.

Anyway, Ugly Bug ran well enough in that race and then turned round the form with a few of those who had finished in front of him, when he returned to the Welsh track.

He has been raised 5lb for that run – but he is a big brute of a horse (aptly named !) and I’m sure he can cope with a weight rise.

He faces a few dangerous looking opponent today – but non of them can match the quality of his form line.

I would be most fearful of Brave Buck – but mainly because he has a very low weight (from what I’ve seen, he appears to be a bit of a plodder !).

0.5pt win Ugly Bug 9/2

3:15

This is some race – in fact, so much so, I was tempted to swerve it !

There may only be 10 runners, but I can make a case of sorts for at least half a dozen of them.

Ultimately, however, it comes down to price and I think Vino Griego is a bit of value at double figure odds…

As regular reader will know, he’s a horse that I’ve been a fan of for a long time – though I did desert him when he found his form last season !

He has a massive amount of ability – but a few quirks and an ability to whack the odd fence !

Still, when everything fall right for him, he is a serious tool and I can’t see any reason why everything won’t fall right for him today…

I honestly think that the key to him is very soft ground – so under foot conditions will be fine.

He will also have no issue with todays trip – whilst the flimsy Haydock fences should be sufficiently forgiving if he does decide to clout one.

In short, everything looks right for him to run a very big race.

The question therefore is simply, is there one good enough to beat him, at the weights..?

Unfortunately the answer to that question could be yes…

Katenko is a horse who I hope has got just as much ability as Vino Griego (as we are on him for the Gold Cup !). The question with him is how much of his ability remains…

Hopefully it will be all of it – in which case Vino will have his work cut out to beat him. However, with doubts over that – and a relatively short price, we will just be watching Katenko this afternoon…

Of the others, I am fearful of Vintage Star, Merry King and Night Alliance – whilst a top form The Minack would also be capable of going very close.

Night Alliance is probably the one that concerns me most – even thought he is 3lb out of the handicap proper…

Like I said, this is a tough race – but I think that Vino Griego has the ability to win it – and gets perfect conditions, Therefore I think he is worth a small play…

0.25pt win Vino Griego 12/1

The rest of the Haydock card is made up of a number of small field conditions races.

They are all quite interesting – but don’t offer much in the way of betting angles…

In the 1:30 race, I did consider an EW bet on Knock a Hand.

However, I think Taquin De Seuil will take the beating and I respect the chance of O’Faolains Bay.

Obviously anything can happen in a novice chase – but as I’ve said, the Haydock fences don’t take much jumping nowadays and I think we might be looking for something to happen to one of the market principals, if we did side with Knock a Hand…

Those of you who like shots in the dark could probably do worse that Abracadabra Sivola in the 2:05 race.

He has little chance on form and is unproven on heavy ground. However, Nick Williams is no mug and as 4 year old, the horse receives a lot of weight from some unproven rivals…

He might finish out with the washing – but then again, he is the sort who is capable of producing a shock…

If we knew he was spot on, then Melodic Rendezvous would be very tempting at 5/2 to beat Ptit Zig, on ground that he is likely to adore…

However, his trainer, Jeremy Scott, has stated that the horse isn’t 100% and they are just looking to get a run into him…

With that kind of ‘confidence’ he could never be a wager !

Instead, I was half temped by Act of Kalanisi EW.

Ultimately however, I figured there was just too much guessing…

Taunton

1:40

It’s back to the Chepstow handicap hurdle form line, for the final tip of the day…

Brackloon High has run in the same two races as Ugly Bug on his last two outings – so most of the things I said for Ugly Bug apply to Brackloon Hgh as well !!

He actually finished second in the ‘gold plated’ race at the beginning of December, before taking third, behind Ugly Bug, at the end of the month…

The form of both races is rock solid though and it is therefore somewhat surprising that Brackloon High gets to run off exactly the same mark today.

That mark of 120, is 8lb lower than his chase mark – and as he has shown himself well capable of competing over the smaller obstacles, he has to be considered well handicapped…

He’s never actually won on heavy ground – but he has won on soft and has run very well on heavy. I don’t think that todays conditions will trouble him.

He should also relish the 3 mile trip – so in short there appears no reason why he won’t run a very big race…

Woodford Coutny and Awesome Freddie seem to present the most potent opposition.

The former was a gutsy winner of a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter and he also be suited by todays test.

Awesome Freddie is having his second run back after a long break. His return was promising enough and he might improve for the run however he doesn’t look as guaranteed to relish todays test.

In summary, Brackloon High represents very strong form for the grade – and will be perfectly suited by todays conditions.

Hopefully that will be sufficient to see him home in front !!

0.5pt win Brackloon High 6/1

In the 2:15 race I briefly considered tipping Possibly Flora…

I tipped him on his penultimate run, when he ran a shocker at Uttoxeter, and then mentioned him last time out when he nearly pulled off a 33/1 shock.

He looks a fair enough price at 12/1 today – though he is taking on better quality animals than he has done on his last 2 starts…

I could have tipped Radoudou Vile in the 2:50, if I could have been sure that he would handle the heavy ground…

He is absolutely thrown in on his chase form – and ran well enough on his recent appearance over hurdles after a long absence.

However, he has no form on soft ground (never mind heavy) so it would be guesswork as to whether he would handle it.

If he does, then he could easily hack up…

The ground is also the issue in the 3:25 race…

On better ground, I would be quite keen on Sound Investment – but he has a stated preference for decent ground.

The same is true for most of his rivals, so by a process of elimination, I was left with Workbench.

However, I have my doubts as to whether he will get home in bottom less conditions – and he is too short a price, to be paying to find out

A watching race, therefore…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 2:25 Thomas Crapper 10/1

Asc 2:25 Imperial Leader 14/1

Asc 3:00 Tatenen 9/2

Hayd 12:20 Ugly Bug 9/2

Hayd 3:15 Vino Griego 12/1

Taun 1:40 Brackloon High 6/1

Mentions

Asc 3:35 Somersby (P)

Hayd 1:30 Knock a Hand (O)

Hayd 2:05 Abracadabra Sivola (S)

Taun 2:15 Possibly Flora (O)

Taun 2:50 Radoudou Ville (C)

Top Picks

Asc 1:15 Kingcora

Asc 1:50 Mickie