Daily write-up - Jan 7th

Only the card at Leicester, has managed to survive the elements today and it provides the sole NH action…

I was maybe a little harsh in my assessment of it earlier. It’s not really that bad – for a mid week January afternoon, anyway...

I guess my issue was more that the races I was looking at, all seemed quite predictable. This generally isn’t a bad thing – but there is no way I’m going to be tipping short priced favourites when there is uncertainty over the state of the ground.

I’ll take a risk on a relative long shot – as we have less to lose (and more to win) if the ground isn’t as stated – but when I tip at the front end of the market, I like to feel reasonably confident over all of the variables…

As a consequence, we’ve ended up with just the one tip. I don’t actually think we are on the most likely winner of the race – but we are in a horse with a chance, who I feel is a little over-priced. Let’s hope he gets that bit of luck you always need…

Just one quick thing, before I start on the rationale…

There are a couple of races scheduled for Saturday, which the bookmakers have already priced up: the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton and the Classic Chase at Warwick.

I might look to tip in one, or both of them, some time during the next couple of days.

If I do, I will first send out an ‘advance tip notification’ message, giving you at least a 10 minute warning prior to any tip being issued…

On to todays racing then…

Leicester

2:55

Massena is clearly the horse to beat in this…

He was very unlucky not to win at Uttoxeter on New Years Eve. He looked in control of the race when ploughing through the second last fence and was ultimately caught on the line. He runs off the same mark today and therefore must have a very good chance of gaining compensation.

However, we can’t be absolutely sure that he would have won without the mistake – plus he did have a hard race, just a week ago. If it has left his mark, then todays race looks very winnable…

Island Magee is making his fencing debut today, having had a pipe opener over hurdles at Chepstow, at the end of November.

He ran a perfectly respectable race that day, finishing third to Radmores Revenge.

It looked as if Island Magee would benefit from that run – despite the fact he was sent off favourite. He led to the fourth last hurdle but then had no more to give when challenged.

It was a similar situation last season when Island Magee ran a respectable race on his seasonal debut at Plumpton…

He followed that up with a game win on his handicap debut at Kempton.

That win was recorded off a mark 1lb higher than Island Magee gets to run off today, which shows that he is potentially well handicapped – provided he takes to the Leicester fences.
Although he led last time out, I actually hope that Paul Moloney chooses to settle Island Magee out the back today. If he can get him jumping, then I would be hopefully he will be able to mount a telling challenge up the home straight.

That’s the theory, anyway !!

0.5pt win Island Magee 10/1

In the opener on the card, I would be optimistic that Moloney might initiate the first leg of his double, on board Milo Man…

This is a horse whose best days should be in front of him – but connections still thought enough of him to run him in the Champion bumper at last years festival.

That was too much for him at that stage of his career – but he came out and won first time up over hurdles this season at Carlisle and should be able to follow up today.

Of his opponents, then Cantony looks the most interesting – though I would be a little fearful that she might be running for her handicap rating (and so wouldn’t want to get to close to winning the race).

I don’t touch sellers, as you know (!) – but I might be half interested in Zanir in the 1:15 race, if any money came…

He was a fair bit better than this level at his prime – the question is how much ability he retains.

I’ve no idea on that one – but the market is likely to know. Keep an eye on it…

I was very tempted by Edmund Kean in the 1:50 race, as I reckon he could  be better class than these – but he was never going to be a tip…

The trouble is, if I’m right, he will be backed to a point where there will be no value – and if I’m wrong, we don’t want to be on him !

The market this morning suggests I am wrong – though last night, it suggested I was right…

There are plenty who could take advantage if Edmund isn’t up to the job – so on balance, a watching race…

Carli King was the one who interested me in the 2:25 race – but a best price of 3/1 doesn’t…

He possibly deserves to be that price – in quite a weak looking race. However top weight on heavy ground is not a combination I’m that keen on.

He could well win – but it will be as a mention…

The last race on the card looks between Toowoomba and Santo Thomas – but as they are 9/4 joint favourites, I would suggest you just flip a coin, if you really want to get involved…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leic 2:55 Island Magee 10/1

Mentions

Leic 1:15 Zanir (S)

Leic 1:50 Edmund Kean (P)

Leic 2:25 Carli King (P)