Daily write-up - Jan 16th

4 meetings today at Wincanton, Ludlow and Market Rasen, in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland….

4 decent meetings as well – particularly for a mid-week – yet just 2 half hearted tips. Pathetic !

But what do you do ? I went through the races last night and found plenty of horses to be interested in. However, most of them faced lots of credible opponents and in that scenario, you need a bit of a price.

And simply, those prices weren’t there – neither first thing this morning – nor mid-morning.

Ofcourse, they may materialise by the off – but generally, when that happens, it’s best to stay away.

As a consequence, we will have lots of mentions – and a Top Pick - but only the 2 tips…

Still, these things happen: I’m not going to start forcing the tipping. I need to be able to see an angle for a horse – and I need it to be a suitable price. If those 2 components aren’t there, then neither will be the tip…

Anyway, enough of the bleating – and on to the rationale for the 2 that did achieve tip status – along with a few thoughts on some of the other races….

Market Rasen

2:30

Astigos caught my eye when making his debut for Venetia Willaims at the Cheltenham meeting on New Years day…

He ran in a class 2 3 mile handicap hurdle that day and travelled very nicely until running out of steam late on.

As that was his first race for Venetia, there is a chance he needed the run. He is also dropped back half a mile in trip today, so if it was a lack of stamina that caught him out, that shouldn’t be an issue either…

Looking at his French from, all his best runs were over 2m4f on heavy ground – which are precisely the conditions he will get today.

As a result of his run at Cheltenham, his handicap mark has been dropped to what looks like a very workable 115. Consequently, he is able to get into todays class 3 race, with a weight of just 10st3lb…

I find it interesting that Aidan Coleman chose to partner him at Cheltenham, despite the fact that Venetia provided the runner up in that race. Maybe his presence on top was why the horse was sent off at just 8/1 that day – or maybe connections were just expecting better…

In a similar vein, I think it interesting that Aiden goes to Market Rasen today, when Venetia has fancied runners at Ludlow and Wincanton.

Obviously it might be so he can ride one of her other 2 runners – but then again…

The market for todays race is made by the unexposed Joanne One. She is trained by Jamie Snowden and ridden by AP – so with her profile she was always likely to be over backed.

Ofcouse, we don’t know, she might turn out to be very good indeed – but she has to give 5lb to Astigos and the same could be true of him.

Furthermore, he was about 3 times the price, so it’s not too difficult to see where the value lay…

0.5pt win Astigos 4/1

Ludlow

1:40

I don’t think he’s the most likely winner of this race – but even with top weight, I do think Supreme Bob has got a chance, and that chance is better than the 14/1 quote…

Supreme Bob is an ex Irish horse, who has only run twice in the UK and will be making his fencing debut today.

He made his debut for his current connections at Newbury last March and was a comfortable winner of a handicap hurdle off a mark of 108. Off 110 today, he is certainly handicapped to go close.

Following that run, he was put away for the summer and reappeared at Warwick at the end of November.

He wasn’t particularly fancied in the market that day, but he ran a really good race behind Swinging Hawk (and that one subsequently followed up in a better race at Newbury).

The relatively quick ground that day wouldn’t have particularly suited him and he should appreciate todays much softer conditions a lot more.

Ofcourse we don’t know if he can jump a fence – and he is carrying top weight today, but most of the opposition look limited, so I would be optimistic of a decent run.

The one I fear most is favourite Bincombe. He ran a really good fourth in a hot contest at Exeter last time out and will take the beating today, on that piece of form.

There are also a few lurking at the bottom of the weights, who could be dangerous – though they would have to improve to get involved (though that is a distinct possibility !).

On balance though I think Supreme Bob should be able to run a decent race –and if things go his way, he might even be capable of coming home in front !
Let’s hope so !!

0.25pt win Supreme Bob 14/1

In the next race on the card, I was torn between Shalimar Fromentro and Big News.

The issue with Shalimar, is that he is not an overly big horse and he’s got to carry top weight; the issue with Big News, is that he ran very poorly last time out.

I would expect Big News to bounce back today on the more suitable heavy ground – and he would probably just about be my choice in the race…

At 7 or 8/1, I would have taken a chance – but not at 5/1

In the 3:10 race, I think that Rio De Sivola should take the beating, on his run behind Bellanos at Ascot last time out.

However he has been raised 3lb for that run – and is a 2/1 shot…

It’s more difficult to articulate a case for Sir Valentino, but I do think he will run well.

8/1 is probably a fair enough price – though I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to get the better of Rio De Sivola…

Wincanton

I could pick half a dozen in the opening race on the card – and still miss the winner…

I will be watching the performance of Whisky Yankee very carefully though – as I suspect he is a fair bit better than he’s shown so far this season…

In the 1:50 race, I was half tempted by Forest Walker, over a trip half a mile shorter than last time at Kempton.

He travelled well enough in that race until running out of steam close home.

The trouble is, there are 3 or 4 real dangers, so a best price of 11/2 can only hold marginal value…

It’s a very similar story in the 2:20 race, where Nodebateaboutit was the one that caught my eye…

He didn’t run particularly well last time – but that was over hurdles and he is much better over the bigger obstacles.

However, once again this looks a tough race and a best price of 9/2 this morning (with Paddy Brennan riding elsewhere) didn’t seem quite big enough…

I almost feel a little guilty about not tipping Ut Majeur Aulmes in the 2:50 – bearing in mind how much I’ve gone on about the strength of the Uttoxeter race that he bolted up in (it provided Carry on Annie and Iron Butterfly for us).

However, he was a best price of 4/1 in a very competitive looking 15 runner handicap – and the second and third favourites both look dangerous…

More than that, the stable of Victor Dartnell appears bang out of form (though it is a difficult one to read).

He may well bolt up – and I’ve made him a Top Pick just in case – but I just couldn’t quite bring myself to tip him…

Bathwick Brave is another one that I really wanted to tip, in the 3:20 race – but I am fearful there might be some good ones in this…

Wilton Milan is the one I fear most – but he has been usurped in the betting by both Handsupfordetroit and Flaming Charmer…

I suspect it will turn out to be a hot contest and I am fearful that Bathwick Brave might not quite be up to it…

Thurles

In the 1:45 race, Katnap was supposed to the big bet of the day…

I’m not sure he will be good enough to win – but I’m damn sure he will run a huge race – and the opening quote of 33/1, would have been very nice indeed…

However, that didn’t last long – and whilst I would have been happy with 25/1 – the best price realistically available, was soon half of that…

I still think he will run well – and I would expect him to place – but little more than 2/1 on him doing that has limited appeal against what could well be superior animals…

I’ve had a bet on him – and I wouldn’t dissuade any of you from doing similar – but I fear he will just end up running a good race and blowing any chance of us being on him in the future L

The Kinloch Brae at 2:45, is a cracking little race, and I was very tempted by Baily Green, until I read the comments of his trainer…

I guess he might be putting us away, but he says that Baily Green will need the run – and the ground will be too soft.

Unfortunately I can just about believe both and whilst I’ve little doubt that he is the best horse in the race – that doesn’t mean he will win it…

In truth, it’s a race in which no result would surprise me. If forced to commit, I would probably pin my colours to Argocat…

Finally, I was kind of glad that Sarabad was put in 3/1 fav for the 3:45 as that removed any temptation for me to tip him…

There is little doubt that he could easily win a race such as this – however, there is much more doubt as to whether or not he will…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips 

MR 2:30 Astigos 4/1

Lud 1:40 Supreme Bob 14/1

Mentions

Winc 1:50 Forest Walker (O)

Winc 2:20 Nodebateaboutit (O)

Win 3:20 Bathwick Brave (O)

Lud 2:10 Big News (O)

Lud 2:40 Rio De Sivola (P)

Thur 1:45 Katnap (P)

Thur 2:25 Argocat (O)

Thur 3:45 Sarabad (P)

Top Pick

Winc 2:50 Ut Majeur Aulmes