Daily write-up - Jan 28th

The meeting at Taunton has managed to survive the recent rains – and they will race there this afternoon, on ground that will doubtless be desperate…

Apparently they had 3mm of rain overnight – and the course was just about able to take that.

Under normal circumstances, Taunton is quite a quick course, so hopefully conditions won’t be too gruelling. Expect to see plenty of very tired horses though…

With the weather as it currently is, there is obviously a slight temptation for me to shut up shop completely. With so many meetings getting abandoned – and plenty of uncertainty over the state of the ground, at those that do take place – betting at this time is a bit of a minefield.

However, I would rather just let things tick along and whilst I will act with even more caution than normal, if I do see an opportunity, it’s nice to know we are in a position where we can take it.

Hopefully I’ve managed to spot a couple of opportunities today. The first won’t come as a big surprise to any of you – however I am also optimistic that the second will seriously outrun its odds…

Here’s the rationale…

Taunton

3:40

We were on Come on Annie when she won last time out at Uttoxeter…

Obviously, there is no such thing as a certainty in racing – but I felt on the day, that she was as close to one I was likely to tip this season…

Unfortunately, I don’t feel quite so strongly about her today – though I still think she has a fair chance of success…

There are a few reason why I can’t be as sweet on her today: firstly, she has more rivals to beat – and is running against a higher class of opposition (class 4 against class 5, last time); secondly, she is running over a trip half a mile further than last time. That’s not to say she will have any problem with the trip – but we knew last time that the trip would be fine. And thirdly, she is running off a mark 5lb higher then last time. I’m pretty confident that she would have won off todays mark last time out – but it won’t make things any easier today…

On the flip side, she is twice the price she was last time – and ultimately it all comes down to percentages and odds…

If I’m honest, I’ve not got a big issue with either todays trip – or the 5lb rise in her handicap mark – it’s the rise in the class and more dangerous opposition, that worry me…

I think Come on Annie will run a big race today (she does look an EW bet to nothing), the concern is really whether one or two of her rivals will simply prove to be better handicapped…

The most dangerous one is probably Hassadin, who was backed form 18/1 first show yesterday evening, into 7/2 this morning !

The question is, where did that money come from..? If it was form students, thinking he is a potentially well handicapped horse, then I’m not too worried; if however it was connections, knowing that the handbrake will be taken off today, then we could be in trouble !

Of the others, then Midnight Request has obviously got a fair bit of potential for improvement; whilst Withy Mills was a good winner last time out (and is quite a big price today).

I will also be keeping a close eye on Should I Stay, on his second run for Gary Moore.

There is too much guesswork to consider backing him – but he looks like the sort who Moore will get the best out of at some point this season…

On balance though, I’m happy enough to go with Come on Annie today. We know she is well handicapped; in good form and will relish the conditions. Provided the longer trip isn’t an issue (she may actually improve for it), then I think she sets a stiff enough standard for her rivals to aim at.

0.5pt win Come on Annie 5/1

4:10

The case for Coolbeg is all about ‘value’ – simply, I don’t believe he should be a 20/1 shot in todays race…

I can kind of see why he is that price (which always makes me feel a bit more comfortable !), in that his form figures – this seasons in particular – are not overly inspiring…

He fell at the first on his seasonal debut at Wincanton – and then was last of five finishers, on his only other outing, at Leicester…

However, those bare facts don’t tell the full story…

The Leicester race was run over a trip of 2m5f and Coolbeg was still travelling very nicely at todays 2 mile distance, on what was effectively his first run for 6 months, before failing to getting home.

He has been dropped 4lb for that run, putting him on a mark 5lb lower than the one he was on when running creditably at both Sandown and Leicester, at this time last year.

It also puts him on a mark 1lb lower than when he won at Leicester, just under 2 years ago…

In short, he is potentially well handicapped – and whilst it is impossible to say categorically that he will go on the ground, he does has some form on both soft and heavy.

You would have to be a little fearful of the top two in the betting – Al Alfa has been running in better class races and Lord of the Dunes has plenty of potential.
However they both have more than enough question marks against them, considering their prices…

I should maybe mention that Coolbeg is trained by Heather Maine, who hasn’t trained a winner since Cody Wyoming went in at 100/1 in March 2011 ! Still, you could say that she is about due one ;)

At the end of the day, this tip is all about value.

It is possible to make a reasonable case for Coolbeg today - and to pick holes in the form of his main rivals.

On that basis alone, he should not be a 20/1 shot…

0.25pt win Coolbeg 22/1

As a general rule, when the going gets desperate, Venetia’s horses run well – and that could certainly be the case today…

That said, I simply couldn’t bring myself to back her Waldorf Salad, in the opening contest.

True, he was a very impressive winner last week on similar ground at Huntingdon – and theoretically looks well in with just a 7lb penalty this afternoon.

However, that takes his weight up to a massive 12st5lb – and he ran just 4 days ago !
He might get away with it – but he’s going to need an iron constitution to do so…

Of more interest, would be Langarve Lady. She ran really well last time out at Wincanton and gets an opening mark of just 84.

The trip is the big imponderable with her - but if she does get home, she looks weighted to go very close…

In the next race on the card, I could be tempted by Calusa Star – despite his near year absence…

He ran in a hot race on his hurdling debut last spring and if he can build on that, he should certainly outrun his current 20/1 odds – particularly as favourite, Milo Man, hasn’t really convinced so far this season…

In the 2:40 race, Venetia’s Moujik Borget looks the one to beat – despite disappointing last time out.

He was a good winner on his penultimate run and if he can recapture that form, he must have every chance today.

Shammick Boy looks a potential danger, at a fair price – though he does have top weight and a poor last time out run, to contend with…

Finally, Mentalist could come good in the 3:10, with the near 3 mile trip and bottomless ground to suit.

Again, the worry is his weight – 11st12lb to lug round in gruelling conditions. More than that, his biggest dagger looks to be Milosam – who has a mere 10st to carry…

It will be interesting to see how that one turns out…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Taun 3:40 Come on Annie 5/1

Taun 4:10 Coolbeg 22/1

Mentions

Taun 1:40 Langarve Lady (S)

Taun 2:10 Calusa Star (O)

Taun 2:40 Moujik Borget (P)

Taun 3:10 Mentlist (P)