Daily write-up - Jan 11th

4 NH meetings today, at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland…

After the relative famine of the week, we have a feast of racing to feed on today…

I chose to restrict myself to the meetings at Warwick and Kempton. I’m sure I could have dug out some tips at Wetherby and Punchestown, but I’ve found it best if I don’t spread myself too thinly.

I’ve always got the mentions to cover my other thoughts - and I’ll be certainly be using those today ! (see keep your eyes peeled !!).

Just a few words on my actions last night, when I issued tips for 5 of the days races…

As you know, I had been looking for a suitable time to issue tips in the days big 2 races, for most of the week.

I eventually decided to wait until the overnight declarations were through - and then chose to issue them yesterday evening.

I suspect that non of you have got an issue with that (though I actually wish I had issued them earlier in the week as we would have got prices 50% bigger- but that’s by the by !)…

The issue from last night, is with the other 3 races that I tipped in…

Firstly, let me say that I didn’t intend to tip in those races. I’d found the horses during the afternoon, but I didn’t expect to be tipping them until this morning.

However, all 3 races were fully priced up by 5:00, so that created the possibility.

I would still have resisted, but the 3 horses I was interested in were being backed.

All 3 had been put in at too big a price – plus it subsequently turned out that Spotlight in the RP had picked 2 of them.

I therefore had a dilemma: either tip them last night – fuelling the price crash – but meaning that most of you should at least get half decent odds: or tip them this morning, by which time the odds would be gone – but non of you would have much of an issue getting on…

I chose the first option – and I also chose to lower stakes (which seemed the fairest thing to do).

That way, those of you who could get on last night (and wanted to), should have been able to.

Those of you who couldn’t were left scraping around for the bits this morning – but the reality is, that would have been the situation if I’d not tipped them last night.

I didn’t create the price crash – I just put petrol on it !

If people feel really strongly about it (and bear I mind, it was exceptional circumstances – I think you can count the number of horses I’ve tipped the night before on the fingers of one hand), then I won’t do it again.

I feel I acted responsibly by waiting until all of the bookmakers had priced up – I kept stakes low – and I effectively suggested a lower acceptable price.

The alternative would have been to tip the same horses this morning at the lower prices, with double the stake.

And that remained an option for anyone who missed the prices…

Anyway, I’ll maybe create a discussion thread on the forum (and a poll !) – and you can argue it out amongst yourselves !!

Hopefully one or two of the tips will win, to give is a debate that we can really get our teeth into  ;)

On to the rationale for the tips then – plus a few words on the other races…

Warwick

12:10

Let’s start with the best bet of the day…

When I looked at this race, yesterday lunchtime, I quickly narrowed in down to 3 horses: Glens Melody; Prima Porta and Hidden Identity.

I was pretty sure I wanted to be with Prima Porta – but that was because I was pretty sure that Glens Melody would be put in as favourite.

I expected the prices to be around 6/4 Glens Melody; 7/2 Prima Porta; 4/1 Hidden Identity.

My feeling was that if we could get 4/1 about Prima Porta, she would be a fair bet (0.75pt).

Imagine my surprise then, when VC opened up 6/4 Glens Melody; 7/2 Mischievous Millie; 9/2 Hidden Identity; 8/1 Prima Porta !

For a few moments I thought I might have read things wrong - but on double checking, I quickly came to the conclusion that it was the VC odds compilers who were out of line…

Ofcourse, the 8/1 didn’t last that long – but at 6/1 at 5:30, I felt I had to tip a horse that was still priced 50% higher than I expected – and I would have been prepared to tip her at that price !

Unfortunately this doesn’t mean she will win !

Objectively, I would just about make Glens Melody favourite for the race – and I would fear Hidden Identity.

My own tissue would be 5/2 Glens Melody; 3/1 Prima Porta and 4/1 Hidden Identity.

What this does mean however, is that at 4/1, Prima Porta is value –and at 6/1, she was serious value…

Lets hope she translates that value into profit !

0.5pt win Prima Porta 6/1

1:55

I’m sure a few of you must think I’m losing the plot, tipping a 13 year old who has been pulled up in 3 of his last 5 races and was beaten 47 lengths last time out..!

Clearly the horse is in terminal decline – right ? I’m not so sure…

I admit that there wasn’t a lot to be taken from Nozics first 2 runs this season – but last time out, I thought he shaped with enormous promise at Lingfield…

That was on desperate ground, over a 2m4f trip. Nozic and Henry King blasted clear of their field that day and it was only eventual winner, Wychwoods Brook, who had managed to catch them by the time they turned into the home straight.

That was the point at which Nozic started to fade – but he had shown enough to that point for me to realise that the old boy isn’t quite finished with yet.

A drop back to 2 miles will certainly be in his favour today – and the likely desperate ground will hold fewer fears for him than it will for most of the field.

What’s even better is that he will be carrying just 10st3lb – receiving 23lb from the 2 top weights in the field…

Whilst he might be 13, it is worth bearing in mind that he was in scintillating form, just 12 months ago (when he was 12 !).

He followed up a fine run behind the very talented Williams Wishes, with a demolition of Kie at Kempton.

That victory saw his mark rise to 128 – today he gets to run off a mark of just 112.

The handicapper clearly thinks he’s in terminal decline – me, I’m not quite so sure…

0.25pt win Nozic 33/1

3:00

Maybe not too surprisingly, the Willie Mullins trained Rathvinden has been put in favourite for this race…

On form, that is a bit difficult to justify: he’s only run once over hurdles when hacking up in a 24 runner maiden hurdle at Cork, early in December…

But he’s not been made favourite based on form – he’s been made favourite because he is trained by Willie Mullins…

Mullins now dominates Irish NH racing in a way that even Paul Nicholls could only have dreamed about doing in England, a few years back.

Ofcourse the downside with such dominance is that there aren’t sufficient races at home for all of his good horses – so he is having to run more of them in England…

Obviously, you would expect him to only bring his better runners over here (because of the travel costs) – but I’m happy to take a chance and find out just how good Rathvinden is today…

The one I’m taking him on with, is Masters Hill.

He was the only horse to give the hugely talented Kings Palace, a race at Cheltenham, last time out.

On that form he should have nothing to fear from Potters Cross today.

One slight concern is that today trip of 2m5f will be the shortest that Masters Hill has ever faced. However, he is a free going sort, so I think he will have sufficient pace to cope with it.

In fact, regardless of trip, the ability to get home in todays likely bottom less conditions will be crucial. However, Masters Hill is a big, powerful grey – and I’ll be surprised if the conditions do prove too much for him.

0.5pt win Masters Hill 8/1

3:35

It was my original intention to get more involved in this race than I have done.

However, it is ultra competitive – and with 16 runners and the best part of 30 fences to negotiate, a fair amount of luck is likely to be required.

I’ve therefore decide to keep steaks to a minimum and settled on just the one speculative bet…

Based on last time out form, then Safran De Cotte has no chance today.

That was in a 3 mile chase at Haydock, where, with seemingly everything in his favour, Safran De Cotte was sent off 11/2 favourite – but disappointed badly and was eventually pulled up.

It is a well documented fact, that Safran De Cotte is a horse who needs the ground to be slightly worse than desperate – he is likely to get hose conditions today.

However, conditions weren’t much better than that, last time out – but I think there is one big difference today…

Looking through his record, it strikes me that Safran De Cotte is a much better horse when he has a low weight to carry.

When you see the horse, you will understand why. He isn’t one of those massive chaseing types - he’s a relatively small sort. He needs very heavy ground – but my feeling is that he also needs a light weight…

He gets both of those today – and therefore I reckon he is worth a bet to bounce back from his last time out disappointment…

As I mentioned however, this is a very open contest and you can reasonably give a decent chance to at least a dozen members of the field,.

I actually think that Boyfromnowhere is the most likely winner.

We were on him last time out when he won the Sussex National land he only got a 4lb rise in the weights for that win.

He too gets to run with a low eight on his back (helped by his claiming jockey) and with ticks in most of the boxes, I see no reasons why he wont; run a big race today.
However, odds of just 7/1 in such a competitive race, offer little in the way of value.

He might win – but it will be as a mention…

0.25pt win Safran De Cotte 14/1

I was half tempted by Oscar Fortune in the Pertemps qualifier, at 2:25…

His form looks pretty good to me and he’s got a reasonable mark. However, these races are notoriously difficult to read (there is almost an incentive not to win them !) – so you really are left guessing what connections are up to.

The money behind Tidal Dance suggests that his connections don’t intend to be messing around – a race that it is easy enough to leave alone…

Kempton

2:40

I been waiting to tip Home Run all week – but I kept on holding off…

My issue was being sure on whether he would run - and I didn’t think the price earlier in the week was overly generous, bearing in mind that uncertainty…

I was therefore a little irritated when I saw him declared to run – and his price halved because a lot of potential opponents swerved the race. Such is life I guess…

Anyway, the reasons for fancying him…

Home Run has run in 3 tremendously competitive races this season – and acquitted himself very well in all 3.

First time out he won a novice handicap at the Cheltenham November meeting. He then followed that up with by running fourth to the very progressive More than That, at Haydock - however it was his last run that really caught my eye…

That was in the Pertemps qualify at Sandown, at the beginning of December.

That race was ultimately won in most impressive fashion by Saphir Du Rheu. However, approaching the final hurdle it was difficult to decide whether it was he or Home Run, which was travelling best…

Both horses cruised into the race – and looked set for a titanic battle. However, Saphir quickened after the last and left Home Run for dead.

The question therefore, is why on earth will Home Run turn the form round today..?

I think there are 3 possible reasons:

Firstly Saphir got a 15lb rise in the handicap for that win – whereas Home Run got 1lb for coming second. Home Run is therefore a stone better off today (ignoring jockey claims). Secondly, todays race is run over a furlong shorter – and as I mentioned, approaching the last, it would have been difficult to split the horses. Similarly the final reason, is the track itself, Sandown has a stiff up hill finish, whereas Kempton is flat up the home run. Those two last points combined, mean that today’s race will require less stamina to win.

Finally, there is the price – Home Run is more than twice the price of Saphir – though that had little bearing on me picking the former…

Cases can be made for a few of the others, Kaylif Aramis in particular, catches my eye.
However, Home Run is the one I always wanted to be on – and I am happy enough with our position on him.

0.5pt win Home Run 11/1

3:15

I think it is worth taking a small chance on Native Gallery in a race where there are question marks over most of the runners…

In truth, there are question marks over Native Gallery – but there is little denying that he potentially well handicapped and should have no issue with the prevailing conditions.

Today will actually only be the second time that Native Gallery has jumped a fence under rules.

Furthermore, the first time was nearly 3 years ago, when he was a comfortable winner of a maiden chase at Folkestone.

In a way, it is a little surprising that he hasn’t run more often over fences. He was twice successful in the PTP field when he was younger – so moving him to fences would seem to have been the logical thing to do…

Looking at his form I think it is just circumstances that have delayed him.

He became very progressive over hurdles, 2 seasons ago – so I suspect that his connections didn’t want to mess things up.

He didn’t make it to the track last season until April (presumably he had some issues) so again, I can understand why he was kept to hurdles.

This season, he has again run twice over hurdles – showing promise on the first occasion – but not running quite so well next time out…

Consequently, we are still a little in the dark over both how good he is and what kind of form he is in.

However, as I mentioned, running off a mark 5lb lower than his hurdles mark (which itself has dropped 5lbs from its peak), he could be very well handicapped – and he has the potential to be an even better horse over fences.

I could have been interested in old timer Planet of Sound, on better ground – but I’ll be a little surprised if todays conditions don’t ultimately find him out.

Whilst there are question maks over all of the others…

Not a race to be going mad on, for sure - but at the prices, I felt Native Gallery was worth a small risk.

0.5pt win Native Gallery 8/1

3:50

Right Step ran a really good race, last time out just after Christmas, over this course and distance…

That was his first run for new trainer, Pat Phelan, and he was still in with every chance, until weakening on the approach to the final hurdle.

An untidy jump there saw him drop from third to fifth at the line – but there can be little doubt that it was a promising run in a race that was very strong for the grade…

That run was only Right Steps fourth over hurdles – so he is inexperienced in that arena. However, he is very experienced on the flat where his best run was probably when winning the City and Suburban handicap at the Epsom Derby meeting in 2012.

That race was run on desperate ground – suggesting that Right Step should have no issues with todays conditions.

Following that win, Right Step rose to a mark of 97. When you consider that he gets to run off a mark of 116 today – and that NH ratings tend to be 40lb higher than the equivalent flat rating – you can see potentially how well treated he is today.

It will also help massively that he gets to carry just 10st2lb today – and provided his conditional jockey is able to make full use of his claim, that will reduce to a featherweight of just 9st6lb !

I could be very sweet on his chances - but unfortunately he faces some potentially tough rivals…

I suspect that Deep Trouble is still a few pounds ahead of this mark (even if he is a bit quirky ! ); whilst Lyvius and Moujik Bourget could also prove tough nuts to crack.

Still, what do you want from a 20/1+ shot ?!?!

0.25pt win Right Step 28/1

I would have quite liked to have a crack at the 12:25 race – but it just looks too trappy…

The two I was most interested in were Sergeant Dick and Barlow.

I think the former has a decent chance – and would expect him to run his race – I would just be fearful that he might find one or two too good…

Barlow on the other hand, is a bit more difficult to read…

Dropped to a trip of 2m4f; cheek pieces applied and AP on top – there is little doubt that connections are going for it today !

It might all come off for them, as I am sure he has the talent to win a race such as this – but then again, it might not…

An interesting race to watch, all the same…

It will also be interesting to see if Captain Chris can gain compensation for missing the King George, by winning the listed chase at 2:10.

I don’t think he’s a great price at 2/1 – but I can’t find one to beat him !

I’ll therefore make him a Top Pick !!

Wetherby

It’s not often you see 6/1 the field in a 9 runner race - but that was the case this morning for the 2:15 race. And I can pretty much understand where the bookmakers are coming from.

You won’t see many races that are tighter than this one…

My two against the field are Rody and Grey Gold – but needless to say, they are priced about right !

In the following race, McMurragh was of some interest, following a big run in a decent handicap hurdle last time out at Haydock.

He remains well treated on his form over fences and his stable are going great guns at the moment.

However, this is another tight race, where chances can be given to most of the field.
He was 11/2 last night and that didn’t tempt me sufficiently – 4/1 this morning is therefore quite easy to pass…

Punchestown

I did promise you earlier in the season that you would see On the Shannon win a race before the season was out…

That was on the assumption he would remain over hurdles – but he makes his chasing debut today in the first race on the card.

He won’t be good enough to win that - but I’ll be keeping an eye on him to establish whether I’ll be needing to go back on my earlier words !

The one horse I did consider tipping at Punchestown today, was Hidden Present, who runs in the 1:15 race.

He ran very well last time out  - and I certainly could have been interested in him in the right circumstances.
However, I would want a weaker race than the one he is in today.
That said, I would expect him to run well and whilst the early 10/1 held no appeal, I see he is now 16/1 in a place.
If he got to 20/1, then a small EW nibble wouldn’t go amiss…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Warw 12:10 Prima Porta 6/1

Warw 1:55 Nozic 33/1

Warw 3:00 Masters Hill 8/1

Warw 3:35 Safran De Cotte 14/1

Kemp 2:40 Home Run 11/

Kemp 3:15 Native Gallery 8/1

Kemp 3:50 Right Step 28/1

*Mentions

Warw 2:25 Oscar Fortune (C)

Warw 3:35 Boyfromnowhere (P)

Kemp 12:25 Barlow (S)

Weth 2:15 Rody (P)

Punc 1:15 Hidden Present (O)

**Top Picks

Kemp 2:10 Captain Chris

  

 * Mentions are horses that I fancy – but not strongly enough to make them tips…

The main reason they are not tips, is put in brackets after the horses name:

P – Price

O – Opposition

S – Speculative

C – Conditions

** Top Picks are horses I expect to win ! The price is immaterial and the hope is that they will produce a profit, just backing at BSP (Betfair Starting Price)