Daily write-up - Jan 23rd

3 meetings this afternoon, at Warwick and Fakenham in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland….

It’s amazing to think that it’s 12 months since Jadanli battled his way home in the Gowran mud, for the high-light of the 2012-13 TVB season. How time flies…

If we are on the winner of the Thystes again today, it’s unlikely to be a 28/1 shot (though I do foresee a drift in the price of Cootamundra !) – though if either of the selections can come home in front, I won’t be complaining…

Obviously, I chose to issue the tips for the big race yesterday evening – and that was as a direct result of the poll and comments I received on the blog, concerning the question of whether it is acceptable to tip the night before…

26 of you responded, which accounts for about 60% of my subscribers – so it was a fair turn out, as the pollsters would say…

And the results were pretty conclusive:

24 of the 26 are happy with me tipping the evening before (that’s over 90%) – with more than half of those, happy for me to tip the night before in any circumstances…

I’ve got to say, that tipping in any circumstances the night before, is not something I’m going to get into…

I can appreciate the attraction of beating the market – and I have little doubt that some of you would achieve that…

However, I don’t think it would be that many (relatively speaking) – and I suspect your bookmaker accounts wouldn’t last long !

In short, I don’t think tipping as soon as prices go up the night before, is the right way forward…

However, I do think that tipping the night before, into markets where all the bookmakers are offering prices, is an acceptable thing to do…

Take last night: by issuing at 6:00, I would imagine that most of you were able to secure the suggested prices on the 2 selections. However, by first thing this morning, the 10/1 on Balnaslow had gone (9/1 was the best price).

Obviously, it’s only one point – but these add up – and we need to be doing everything we can to secure the value.

Anyway, I’ll stick to my original plan and open the tipping window for an hour, the evening before on big race days (normally Friday).

Onto todays action then – and whilst there are tips in a couple of races, there is nothing to set the pulse racing.

To a large extent, it’s just the time of the year. The cards scheduled for Saturday (weather dependant) look amazing – but the week days are pretty drab.

It’s just a question of biding our time and waiting for the right opportunities to present themselves.

Hopefully a couple of such opportunities have presented themselves today ! Here’s the rationale – plus a few other thoughts…

Gowran Park

3:15

I think you now all know the drill for finding the winners of these valuable handicaps: young, unexposed, potential improver…

My short-list consisted of 4 horses: Balnaslow, Los Amigos, Living Next Door and Groody Hill – and we are on 2 of them in Balnaslow and Living Next Door.

I ditched Los Amigos and Groody Hill for different reasons:

The former because he is favourite and today will only be his second ever run over fences. There is inexperienced – and there is inexperienced !

The latter, is on the comeback trail after nearly 2 years off the track. I’m always a little wary with these sorts – plus I can’t help but think that if he was really fancied, then AP would be onboard (unless ofcourse, that would have made him too obvious !).

Needless to say, either could win – but there are sizeable risks with both and not a lot of compensation in the prices…

Instead, I opted for Balnaslow as the main bet in the race.

He represents top connections in Willie Mullins and Gigginstown.

He has only run 4 times over fences but already looks a much better chaser than he was hurdler.

Having finished runner up on his chasing debut, he went one better next time out when comfortably getting the better of Hunting Party at Thurles. That one reopposes today on 5lb better terms, which strictly on the book gives him a good chance of reversing the form. However, Balnaslow won with any amount in hand that day, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t confirm the placings this afternoon.

Balnaslow has contested grade 2 races on his 2 most recent runs and whilst he’s not been up to winning, he’s run with credit on both occasions over a trips which were almost certainly too short for him.

In the first of those, he was beaten 30 lengths by Felix Younger but on the second he had reduced that deficit to just 4.

He was a little better off at the weights on the latest run – but more significantly it was over half a mile further.

Today Balnaslow gets to run over an additional 5 furlongs and I expect him to improve even further for the extra distance.

In addition to Balnaslow I have also put up a couple of savers in the race…

The first of those is out old friend Cootamundra…

Clearly we missed the boat with him last time, when he won the Troytown chase at Navan in November.

That was a difficult one for me to take, as I’d remained so loyal to him for all of last season, in the expectation that he would produce a performance like he did there.

Such is life…

He has been raised 10lb for that win, but I honestly think he is capable of defying that, if he is in the same mood…

He was certainly running with credit off that kind of mark last season – so it’s difficult to know why he won’t at least do the same today.

Maybe connecitions have found the key to getting him to deliver – if they have, then he could surprise people again this afternoon.

Finally, I am also having on board, Living Next Door. In all probably he won’t get a run (he is the second reserve) but if he does, then based on his Troytown run with Cootamundra, he would have to go close.
He was about to mount a challenge when he fell at the final fence that day. He is 10b better off with Cootamundra today – and also has plenty of scope for improvement.

If he does run, I would expect him to go very well.

Hopefully one of our boys will come home in front this afternoon and maintain the TVB tradition in the race ;)

0.5pt win Balnaslow 10/1

0.25pt win Cootamundra 14/1

0.25pt win Living Next Door 12/1

In the Galmoy hurdle at 2:15, I was looking for something to beat Zaidpour, but I drew a blank !

Mala Beach should give him a better race than he did at Leopardstown over Christmas – but ultimately, I think the result will be the same…

In the handicap hurdle at 2:45, I was half tempted by Royal Flight.

She was an impressive winner at Down Royal over Christmas and the form of that race has been franked in no uncertain terms, by the subsequent exploits of  a couple of the placed horses.

She has been raised a stone following that run – but I suspect she is capable of defying the new mark…

My biggest issue is with her connections. She was subject to a big gamble when winning last time – and whatever course we took today, we would be a few steps behind her connections again.

In the circumstances, I think a watching brief is best…

Warwick

1:50

As you probably gathered, I spent a lot of time deciding whether or not to tip in this race today…

On the one hand, I really fancy Master Neo – but on the other hand, I expected him to be a fair bit bigger price (I was hoping for nearer to 7/1).

Ultimately, on this occasion, the horse won out over the price. There must be a chance he will drift, so 9/2 should be the very worse any of you manage to achieve on him…

In terms of the reasons for me fancying him:

He’s a relatively unexposed, improving chaser, who should be perfectly suited by todays 3m2f in the Warwick mud.

He is also getting to be quite well handicapped, as the official handicapper seems to be taking a less positive view of his recent runs, than I do !

Last time out for example, on his seasonal debut, he ran a very nice race in what was a strong contest for the grade, at Lingfield.

He finished fourth that day, but stayed on all the way to the line, looking as of the run would bring him on.

Yet despite that, he was dropped 2lb and today gets to run in a race a class lower (class 4, against class 3 last time).

He only ran 5 times over fences last season, but he ran with credit on each occasion and I can’t see any reason why he won’t do exactly the same today…

He does face some fair rivals this afternoon, but all of them have questions to answer – whereas he will arrive at the race relatively question free !

Whether he will be good enough to win, only time will tell – but I would certainly expect him to run a very big race.

0.5pt win Master Neo 9/2

The handicap hurdle at 2:50 looks quite an interesting race, with impressive last time out winners, Tidal Dance and Big Society, both running under penalties…

We were on Big Society and he won like a horse with plenty in hand of his official mark – but his hurdling was dire.

He will only get away with that again today, if the ground is truly desperate (which it might well be).

Tidal Dance won a decent novice event at Towcester on Sunday and I would fancy him slightly more, of the pair…

However, I would be inclined to take them both on at the odds – and on the back of recent runs in tiring ground.

The other 3 runners have all got chances of sorts but it is Mistral Reine, the outsider of the field, who would probably get my vote, if I did play in the race…

Fakenham

Just the one race of any significant interest on the card, at 3:30…

There are only 7 runners but it looks quite competitive.

Cruising Bye is the one I would be most interested in – if he wasn’t favourite !
He was a good winner at Ffos Las, last time out and the form looks reasonable for the grade.

A 5lb rise in the handicap may not be sufficient to stop him following up this afternoon…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Gow 3:15 Balnaslow 10/1

Gow 3:15 Cootamundra 14/1

Gow 3:15 Living Next Door 12/1

Warw 1:50 Mater Neo 9/2

Mentions

Gow 2:45 Royal Flight (C)

Warw 2:50 Mistral Reine (O)

Fake 3:30 Cruising Bye (P)