Daily write-up - Apr 3rd (Aintree day 1)

Day 1 of the Aintree festival and the ground is described as good – good to soft on the Mildmay course: and good to soft on the National course.

However, there have been showers over the past few days – and with more possibly hitting the course today, there has to be some uncertainty over the going…

Clearly that is not great from our perspective – so I’ve had to make a few assumptions and we’ll need to keep our fingers crossed !

As I’ve already said, Aintree is a tough meeting to read at the best of times…

Most of the runners will fall into 3 camps: those that ran well at Cheltenham; those that ran poorly at Cheltenham; and those that didn’t run at Cheltenham (because they were being saved for Aintree).

Each category comes with it’s own issues: did those that run well at Cheltenham effectively leave their Aintree chances behind there ? Can those that didn’t run well at Cheltenham bounce back to form ? Are those who have been saved for Aintree good enough to compete at the highest level ?

Unfortunately the answer to these questions tends to vary from race to race – and from horse to horse. Consequently, it’s as if a new level of complexity has been added to the puzzle…

Anyway, despite that, I’m optimistic that I might have found a winner or two…

Here’s the logic behind the selections – and a few other thoughts…

Aintree

2:00

The opening race of the meeting gives Calipto a chance to demonstrate how unlucky he was last time out, in the Triumph hurdle at Cheltenham.

We were on him that day and he was still travelling very nicely approaching the second last hurdle, when his stirrup leather broke.

As a result, jockey Daryl Jacobs had to ride a finish with no stirrups. In the circumstances he did really well to finish fourth, only beaten 9 lengths.

It’s difficult to say categorically whether he would have won without the incident –but he would certainly have gone close – and I suspect he would have overhauled third placed Guitar Pete…

Prior to Cheltenham, I was of the opinion that Calipto was just about the best juvenile hurdler of the season. His UK debut victory at Newbury, was very good form – and I’m struggling to see why Activial, who finished behind him that day, should reverse the placings today…

Admittedly, Activial subsequently went on and won well at Kempton – but that just franked Caliptos form !

It is possible to make cases for some of those outside the top 3 in the betting, but they do get more speculative and less form based and I’ll be a little surprised if there is a shock winner.

As Calipto holds Activial on form – and all things being equal, would also hold Guitar Pete as well – he really is the obvious choice – even if the odds are a bit shorter than I would have liked !

0.5pt win Calipto 7/2

2:30

This is a classic Aintree race…

The 3 main contenders represent the 3 categories of horse that I described in the introduction;

Dynaste won well at Cheltenham – but did he leave his chance for victory in this race behind that day..?

Silviniaco Conti disappointed at Cheltenham – but will he bounce back today over a slightly shorter trip ?

First Lieutenant didn’t run at Cheltenham – he’ll be fresher than the other two, but will he be good enough to beat them..?

If forced to take a view, I would side with Dynaste. I thought he was very impressive in winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham – and appeared to do it without being ‘bottomed’.

Silviniaco Conti looked to have a far harder race in the Gold Cup – and I would struggle to support him on the back of that.

First Lieutenant will almost certainly run well – but probably won’t be good enough (assuming one of the other two run close to form).

Of the others, then I could give Menorah a chance – if he managed to rediscover his form.

But his run at Cheltenham was poor and it would take an act of faith to support him.

3:05

All things being equal, The New One should win this quite comfortably…

On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race – and he comfortably beat the second best horse in the race (Rock on Ruby) when they met at Kempton at the start of the season.
He is also young enough to still be progressing – and will have no issues with today’s 2m4f trip.

In short his case looks rock solid – but then you would expect that at odds of 2/5…

If he is beaten this afternoon, it will either be down him not running to form (he had quite a tough race at Cheltenham) or to him encountering bad luck (as was the case when he ran in the Champion hurdle).

However, I couldn’t recommended opposing him, simply in the hope that either of those things materialised…

For those who really want some action in the race, I would suggest a straight forecast on him to beat Rock on Ruby.

At current prices, that will pay around 4/1, which seems fair enough to me…

3:40

Despite the massive field, on form this looks a 2 horse race – between Mossey Joe and Warne…

Mossey Joe is a seriously talented hunter – as his romp in the Foxhunters championship at Stratford last May, demonstrated.

He won that race hard held, by 20 lengths, with the likes of Salsify, Tammys Hill and Chapoturgeon trailing behind him.

If he is in the same form today – and he handles the Aintree fences – then he will win.

He was sold for £160K as recently as January – which is a crazy price for an 11 year old.

However, that was in the expectation that he would be running (and go close to winning) the Grand National – so it’s a little odd that he is running in todays race at all…

The suggestion is that maybe things haven’t gone quite according to plan – and if that’s the case, then the path could be open for Warne to take advantage…

Warne is about a far clear of the rest of the field, as Mossey Joe is of him.

He has form that ties in very closely with Tammys Hill (who won the Cheltenham Foxhunters) and todays 2m5f trip is perfect for him. In fact, he finished fourth in this race last year, having suffered interference.

With another year on his back – and Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle, if Mossey Joe isn’t up to the job today, I think Warne will be…

The other one I want on side in the contest, is Cool Friend…

She wouldn’t have any pretensions to the class of Mossey Joe or Warne – but she did manage to finish second in this race last year – so we know she handles the track.

That was behind shock winner Tarten Snow and whilst that one reopposes today, it is now 14 years old.

Cool Friend is a mere 11  - and looks to have been layed out for todays race.

In Oliver Greenhall, she has a good pilot from a north west family who target this meeting.
She might not be good enough to win if the big 2 get round safely, but I do think she is best of the rest – and at 5 or 6/1 a place, is worth a risk to prove that.

0.5pt win Warne 9/2

0.25pt EW Cool Friend 25/1

4:15

This has already proved to be quite a frustrating race – and that’s even before the tape has gone !

Arnaud is the one horse that I had earmarked tipping for this meeting.

Most of you will recall that we were on him last time he ran, in a novice chase at Doncaster, back in February…

He jumped like a buck that day – but didn’t quite get home in the rain softened ground.

I felt at the time, that a sharp 2 miles round Aintree on quick spring ground, was exactly what he needed. I was therefore pleased when he connections chose to swerve Cheltenham – and delighted when I saw they were running him in an open handicap chase (he jumps particularly well for a novice – touch wood !).

The icing on the cake, was the booking of crack amateur Ger Fox – whose 7lb claim is an absolute gift.

However, rain in the air is a worry – so I held off tipping him yesterday evening – and in accordance with Sods Law, Pricewise tipped him !

Hopefully most of you still managed to get a price about him (I saw him go to 7/1 in a least a couple of places) – so now we’ve just go to hope that the rain stays away…

If it does, then I think he will take all the beating.
His handicap mark actually looks a little harsh to me (based on what he has actually achieved) – but I suspect he will ultimately prove a fair bit better than it – and as I said, the claim of Ger Fox effectively reduces it by 7lb.

The other one I want on side, is the Nicky Henderson trained Anquetta…

He was an 11/2 shot when unplaced in this race 12 months ago, off a 1lb higher mark.

Based on that form he would have little chance today – but he subsequently won a couple of decent races, the second off todays mark – and on that form, he would have every chance…

He’s only run twice so far this season, showing very little on the first occasion – but a lot more second time out.

That was in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival where he was still bang in the firing line turning for home, before fading up the straight.
If he needed that run to put him right, then I can see him going very close today.

And even with minimum stakes, a first 4 placing will result in a slight profit on the race.

0.5pt win Arnaud 7/1

0.125pt EW Anquetta 33/1

4:50

Once again, I might have missed a trick by not putting up Uxizandre last night, when he was available at 5/1 in a place.

I thought the price might drift a little further due to support for the market principals – but that has not been the case…

In truth, I can understand why, as there are question marks over both Western Warhorse and Oscar whisky.

Both have a huge amount of talent – but the former is ‘quirky’: whilst the latter remains unconvincing over his fences…

Victory for either would come as no big surprise – but at the prices, they had to be take on…

Uxizandre strikes me as the one with least question marks against him – and a fair level of ability as well.

That was demonstrated by his fine second in the JLT novice chase at he Cheltenham festival.

He tried to make all that day and was only caught close home by Taquin Du Seuil.

I can see no obvious competition for the lead in today race, so I suspect that AP will use the same tactics.

That could make him a sitting duck – for Oscar Whisky in particular, so it will be important that AP gets his fractions right and applies the pressure at the correct time.

If he does that, then Uxizandres sound jumping and game attitude could see him very hard to pass.

0.5pt win Uxizandre 4/1

5:25

This looks an absolute minefield – and I’ve take 2 against the field, who I believe have the ability to win the race, if things drop right for them…

Riverside Theatre is a former top class chaser – in fact it could be argued that he is still a top class chaser !

Certainly the form of his seasonal debut win the Peterborough chase at Huntingdon reads pretty well – and suggests that he is capable of performing to a level of around 160 over fences.

A subsequent unseated in the King George and a disappointing run at Ascot leave a few question marks – but they are more than compensated for by a handicap mark of 145 !

Simply, Riverside Theatre can run a stone below the form he showed at Huntingdon and still go close today…

I actually think he might appreciate a return to hurdles – and it is always good to see Barry Geraghty on board.

I’ve no issues about the distance, so provided the ground isn’t too quick, I could see him running a very big race indeed (provided sufficient ability does remain).

There are also some doubts over the second selection for the race, Big Easy.

He has not run since last October –and not run over hurdles since last April – so his fitness needs to be taken on trust.

However, he is trained by Philip Hobbs, so I really don’t think it will be an issue – and the fact the horse needs decent ground, almost certainly explains why he is making his debut so late in the season.

The last time he ran over hurdles, he won a really competitive handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 136. He has only been raised 1lb for that win – which seems extremely generous.

The horse is only 7 years old and has plenty of scope for improvement. Ground and trip will be perfect for him today – so provided he is ready to do himself justice, I think he will also run a very big race.

There are plenty of dangers in the race, but I would be particularly fearful of the bottom 3 horses: Josies Orders, Carole’s Destrier and Spirit of Shankly.

If you fancy the latter, then I would suggest you take an early price, as with a name like that, he is likely to be very well backed on course !

0.25pt win Riverside Theatre 14/1

0.25pt win Big Easy 20/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Aint 2:00 Calipto 7/1

Aint 3:40 Warne 9/2

Aint 3:40 Cool Friend 25/1

Aint 4:15 Arnaud 7/1

Aint 4:15 Anquetta 33/1

Aint 4:50 Uxizandre 4/1

Aint 5:25 Riverside Theatre 14/1

Aint 5:25 Big Easy 20/1

*Horses tipped by TVB earlier in the season

Thanks to Dan for his efforts in digging these out.

Such horses have done well in the past – it will be interesting to see how they get on today.

TVB Season Tips

Selection	Time
Arnaud	16:15
Fox Appeal	16:50
Gus Macrae	16:15
Houblon Des Obeaux	14:30
Parsnip Pete	16:15

Cheltenham Tips

Selection	Time
Grandouet	15:05
The New One	15:05
Violet Dancer	14:00
Menorah	14:30
Calipto	14:00