Daily write-up - Apr 5th (Aintree day 3)

The final day of the Aintree festival – Grand National day !

And once again there is uncertainty over the state of the going…

The forecast is for rain at some point today – and the course has been watered overnight.

If significant ran does materialise, then heaven knows what the ground will end up like…

I’ve assumed that it won’t (!) – and that the ground will ride similar to the first 2 days.

If that proves not to be the case, then we could be in trouble (though Big Shu will likely revel in it !!).

Outside the ‘big one’, the races look suitably tight – but I’m hopeful I’ve found a  couple of ‘probables’ – and a decent ‘possible’ or two.

If we can end the day as we have done the previous two, I won’t be complaining…

Here’s the rationale…

Aintree 1:30

This looks nearly impossible to call – and victory for any one of the field wouldn’t be a major surprise (with the exception of hurdling debutante No No Romeo).

The one I instinctively wanted to be with, was Un Ace – but I nearly ended up swerving him because his price has shortened to a point where I think he only just represents value…

Certainly he has still got a lot to prove, but his fast finishing eighth in the Supreme novice at Cheltenham gives him a definite chance today…

He was 3 lengths behind Wilde Blue Yonder that day – and he also finished just behind that one in the bumper on this card, 12 months ago.

Strictly on the book, Wilde Blue Yonder should have his measure again today – but I suspect that Un Ace is the more progressive of the pair and I doubt there will be much between them.

Consequently at twice the price, Un Ace was the logical call…

The other one I want on side is more speculative - but has a price to match…

Kilcooley has won 3 of this 4 race under rules – including his two hurdle starts.

They were at Market Rasen and whilst he was impressive in both, it is quite a step up to grade 1 company today.

Whether he will be up to it, is anyones guess. But I was impressed by the way he travelled through his races, which suggested he will be up to competing at a higher level.

Both decent novice form and decent handicap form, are represented by the other runners in the field and deciding which is the strongest, is very difficult.

I’m happy enough that we’ve got 2 on our side who both have fair chances and hopefully one of them might prove good enough to come home in front.

0.25pt win Un Ace 9/1

0.25pt win Kilcooley 25/1

2:05

This is another tricky race – but I think it is a bit easier to anticipate the way it will unfold…

Almost certainly, Next Sensation will go off and attempt to make all, the question is whether he will be good enough to hold on.

He wasn’t last time, when he attempted to lead from pillar to post in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and whilst todays sharper track will help him get home, he is facing better quality opponents.

My feeling is that he will end up giving the likes of Hinterland, Trifolium and Balder Succes a nice lead into the race and they will all look to pounce between the final two flights…

I think we got a reasonable feel for the level of Trifoliums ability at the Cheltenham festival, when he finished third in the Arkle.

Neither Western Warhorse nor Dodging Bullets really advertised that form on Thursday – and I suspect that Trifloum will come up short this afternoon…

It’s not easy to get a handle on Hinterland, but he looks quite closely matched with Grandouet on early season form – and again, that shouldn’t be good enough to win here…

Alan King never intended to run Balder Succes in the Arkle, choosing instead to target him at this race and letting Valdez run at Cheltenham.

Valdez ran quite well at Cheltenham, finishing fifth – just 2 lengths behind Trifolium and a couple of lengths in front of Grandouet.

My feeling is that Dodging Bullets is a better horse than Valdez. If that is the case then he really should have the measure of both Trifolium and Hinterland – the fact that he has been targeted at this race and his main opponents had tough races at Cheltenham, is just an added bonus !

0.75pt win Balder Succes 4/1

2:50

At Fishers Cross clearly sets the standard for this race, based on his 6 and a half length third in the World hurdle at Cheltenham.

That represented a return to form for the horse, who had been out of sorts earlier in the season.

Zarkandar finished 2 lengths behind At Fishers Cross that day, but I think there is every reason for thinking that he can reverse the form this afternoon…

The World hurdle was Zarkandars first attempt at a trip beyond 2m4f and he was clearly ridden with a view to getting the trip.

Settled out the back of the field, he was around 6 lengths behind At Fishers Cross turning in. However he ate into the advantage all the way up the straight – and by the line was only a couple of lengths down.

Now that connections know he stays the trip, I can see him being ridden more handily and based on the Cheltenham race, I think he has every chance of getting the better of At Fishers Cross.

In addition to Zarkandar, I want a small saver on Salubrious…

He also ran in the World Hurdle, but gave himself little chance of getting home, by refusing to settle in the race.

He is fitted with a hood for the first time today, which will hopefully clam him down.

If it does work, then based on his runs earlier in the season, behind More of That and Reve De Sivola, he has a better chance of victory that his dismissive odds suggest.

0.5pt win Zarkandar 4/1

0.25pt win Salubrious 20/1

3:25

Two horses stand out in this race to me – but unfortunately, they also stood out to the bookmakers and consequently, I almost ended up swerving the race…

The horses in question are Victor Hewgo and Saint Are.
The former is a novice, with only 4 chase runs under his belt. However, he was won 2 of those 4 races – and finished runner up on the other 2 occasions.

More than that, his 2 victories have both seen facile wins – whilst he has finished runner up to two subsequent Cheltenham festivals winners in the shape of Holywell and Western Warhorse.

In short, his chasing form couldn’t look much better ! 

His handicap mark of 139 looks decidedly lenient, as it would be hard to argue with a rating at least 10lb higher than that.

Provided he gets round, he will take all the beating this afternoon…

If he is beaten however, I think it will be by Sainte Are.

Whilst it is difficult to take much from his recent form figures, if you go back a bit further, then you will see a horse that is very well handicapped – and who loves this particular meeting…

He won the 3 mile novice hurdle here 3 seasons ago (from Cantlow) and then retuned 12 months later to take this very race, off a mark of 137.

He beat Battle Group by half a length that day, with the third horse 16 lengths further back.

A further 12 months on, Battle Group franked that form in no uncertain terms by hacking up in today race – so off a mark of just 129 today, Saint Are really could be thrown in…

The slight danger with him is that he is not the horse he used to be.
However, he ran with a certain amount of promise on his penultimate outing at Haydock and with the visor back on today, in the perfect race, I am optimistic that he will bounce right back to form and hopefully prove too good for Victor Hewgo.

0.5pt win Saint Are 15/2

4:15

First things first, let me say that I think that the top dozen in the betting have all got a very good chance of winning and depending on who gets the luck, I could see any one of them coming home in front.

With the modified fences, I would expect most of the best horses to get round (assuming they don’t get caught up in traffic) and I will be surprised if 6 or 7 of the market leaders aren’t in the first 10 home.

We are on Monbeg Dude ante-post from before Christmas at 25/1 – and I think he has a decent chance. I would be less inclined to play on him at the current 14/1 however..

Of the others in the race, I have selected 5, that I think are over priced. If Monbeg isn’t up to the job, then hopefully one of them will be…

The first selection is Prince De Beauchene.

He has been ante-post favourite for the past 2 Grand Nationals but not made it on the day. It’s therefore ironic that he when he does get here, he is a 25/1 shot !

Listening to Willie Mullins yesterday, the suggestion was that he felt he had been too hard on the horse in the build up in the past 2 years – and that the horse has not lasted the season as a result.

This time round he has apparently done things differently and been easy on him, with a view to ramping up things for today. Whether he has got the timing right, is obviously the question. But this is Willie Mullins we’re talking about – I think we all know what the answer to that question is likely to be ;)

Next up I’m going for Rocky Creek. He represents the stable of Paul Nicholls – another man who will be very keen to lift the most valuable prize in jump racing.
Rocky Creek was actually being aimed at the Cheltenham Gold Cup but had to miss that race. His earlier form with The Giant Bolster, suggests he may have gone close in that contest so off a mark of 156, he has to be of interest today.

The third member of the TVB National squad, is Big Shu.

He won the cross country race at the Cheltenham festival 12 months ago and was fancied to follow up this year. However, he didn’t quite get home in that race – apparently because he wasn’t 100% fit (his trainer runs a very small operation).

That won’t be an issue today – and the horse has already proved his ability to jump and his ability to stay. Even if the rain materialises, he should run a big race…

Alvarado is not as guaranteed to run a big race – but if he does, he has the ability to outrun his odds.

He was successful at Cheltenham in November, on his first try at a marathon trip. He stayed on strongly that day to beat Knockara Beau, with the like of Monbeg Dude further behind.

He has clearly been saved for todays contest and whilst he will need a bit of luck in running, he has got the right man on top in the shape of Paul Moloney, to steer a course through the traffic.

My final selection for the race, really does come from left field…

Vesper Bell has fallen and unseated his rider in 2 of his 3 runs this seasons – so has hardly had the ideal preparation. However, he remains a stayer with untapped potential – as his second behind Goonyella at Punchestown last April, shows.

He is also trained by Willie Mullins and for that reason alone, I don’t think he should be 80/1…

He’s a risky one for sure – but I just think he might be capable of going close…

Of the others, then I would fully expect huge runs from Teaforthree, Long Run and Burton Port – but you have to draw the line somewhere.

Let’s hope that I’ve managed to draw it in the right place !!

0.25pt win Prince De Beauchene 25/1

0.25pt win Big Shu 22/1

0.25pt win Rocky Creek 20/1

0.125pt EW Alvarado 40/1

0.125pt EW Vesper Bell 80/1

5:10

Despite the field size, this is another race with a stand out candidate.

Katgary was an unlucky second on his debut for Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival. He has been raised 7lb for that run – but all things being equal, you would still expect him to go close this afternoon…

The trouble with him is that you can’t be sure that he will have progressed for that run – and he is a relatively inexperienced 4 year old, taking on a lot of more experienced and more mature horses…

Ultimately it comes down to the price. At 5/1, I might have been prepared to take the risk – and 7/2, I’m not…

Instead, I’ve opted for the Charlie Swan trained novice, Drumlee…

He has shown steadily progressive form in this, his first season over hurdles – and looks like he will be well suited by todays test of 2 miles on quick ground.

On the book, there isn’t a lot between him and Somethingwonderful, based on their last time out run at Navan. Drumlee is only 2lb better off today for a 5 length beating, but he was eased close home and I suspect there won’t be much between the two today.

The thing that really tips me in favour of Drumleee, is the booking of Ger Fox.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, he is as good a 7lb claimer as there is riding at the moment and I would be hopeful that he could make the difference if things get tight.

Clearly there are plenty of other in the race with decent chances – and with 22 runners and apprentices on top, a bit of luck will be required !
However, if he gets that bit of luck, then I would be hopefully that Drumlee could run a big race.

0.25pt win Drumlee 16/1

 

5:45

The final race of the meeting and I was half tempted to take a chance on Modus…

He ran a fair enough race to finished eighth in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival and a reproduction of that form will almost certainly see him go close this afternoon.

The trouble is, there is absolutely no way of knowing whether it will be good enough to win.

It is the best piece of form shown by any of the runners so far – but that doesn’t mean that it will not be surpassed this afternoon. In fact, it almost certainly will…

Of his rivals, then Ordo Ab Chao and Battle Born are the two that most caught my attention – but it really would be guesswork with them.

On balance, then a race better watched with an eye to next season…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 1:30 Un Ace 9/1

Aint 1:30 Kilcooley 25/1

Aint 2:05 Balder Succes 4/1

Aint 2:50 Zarkandar 4/1

Aint 2:50 Salubrious 20/1

Aint 3:25 Saint Are 15/2

Aint 4:15 Prince De Beauchene 25/1

Aint 4:15 Rocky Creek 20/1

Aint 4:15 Big Shu 22/1

Aint 4:15 Alvarado 40/1

Aint 4:15 Vesper Bell 80/1

Aint 5:10 Drumlee 16/1

*Ex TVB tips running this afternoon are as follows:

 TVB Ex Tips
 

Selection	Time
Lac Fontana	13:30
The Knoxs	14:50
Whisper	14:50
Johns Spirit	15:25
Saint Are	15:25
Tranquil Sea	15:25
Vino Griego	15:25
Renard	15:25
Alvarado	16:15
Monbeg Dude	16:15
Jumps Road	17:10

Cheltenham TVB Tips
 

Selection	Time
Next Sensation	14:05
Zarkandar	14:50
Our Kaempfer	17:45