Aintree - final round-up

As promised, I’ve done the official accounting for Aintree and can report the following numbers:

Across the 3 days, a total of 10.75pts were staked on 30 selections in the 16 races.

Assuming best generally available prices were secured then a profit of 5.19pts (48% ROI) would have been achieved.

If you opted to take BSP (win and place), then the profit figure would have been 4.52pts (42% ROI).

Clearly these are impressive numbers – particularly as there were returns from 6 of the 16 races – including 4 winners – and the P&L didn’t dip into the red after race 1.

I’m sure this is precisely what you guys are after from a tipster – but, whisper it quietly, I think we got lucky… 

The other metrics I use to measure the quality of the tips, say that we did well to end up much better than level across the 3 days.

Of course, that is always the risk when you tip over such a short period of time – and why I’m keen to move these ‘Specials’ outside the scope of the main service.

As a rule, lady luck has declined to smile on the TVB service – but I don’t think I can have any complaints on that front this time round !

The other thing that I got right across the 3 days, was staking.

Again, to level stakes, we would have done little better than break even across the meeting.

So there you go: average tips + good staking + a bit of luck = near 50% profit J

There are a couple of other things that I want to report back from the meeting (which you can mull over during the summer months !).

On the back of my end of season report, a couple of the guys – Dan and Will – took the initiative and used Aintree to pilot a couple of things which I’ve been banging on about…

Dan decided to follow horses at the meeting that had previously been issued as tips, earlier in the season (I included all of them at the end of each days write-up).

Over the 3 days, 20 such horses ran – and between them, yielded 3 winners and a nett profit of 7.5pts – at industry SP – to a 1pt stake (so a ROI of 37%).

This is the fourth major festival in a row that this ‘system’ has worked (Cheltenham 2013 & 2014 and Aintree 2013). The 3 previous occasions all produced returns in excess of 100% - and this one would have done likewise if 25/1 shot Vino Griego had managed to get up close home…

It certainly has to be something worthy of serious consideration, next season…

Like a few of you, Will has an issue getting on with bookmakers – and often struggles to achieve the quoted early prices…

He picked up on the point, in the end of season report, that the tips have been profitable at starting price – provided you only back those that shorten from advised prices…

Across the 3 days, he monitored the prices of all of the tips I put up and, near the off, made the decision to back 10 of the 30 selections (based on them having contracted sufficiently in price).

He managed to get on 3 winners (Balder Succes drifted slightly, so he chose not to back that one) and ended up with a profit at SP, of 11.25pts to the 10pts staked (so an ROI of 112%).

Now I have to say that I think Will got a little lucky in his interpretation.

According to ‘official’ figures, he should have been on 13 horses (and some different to the 10 he was actually on) – and if he had allowed for a 10% drift in price (which I probably would), he would only have been on 22 of the tips. However, the 8 he would have ducked, were all losers…

Clearly this whole area is open to interpretation – however the bottom line is that Will made a very decent profit (as would have been the case throughout the season), by just backing a sub set of the tips at SP (and that was industry SP, not BSP).

He intends to continue his ‘experiment’ next season – and it is something that I think others with account restrictions should also consider doing (if you are not around to monitor markets, then it may be possible to find some bet placement software to automatically submit bets in specific circumstances).

Anyway, that really is it for the season L

I hope you’ve all enjoyed the time – and profited from it as well.

A number of you have already been in touch with me, and I would like to stress that I always appreciate feedback on the service – both positive and negative (I honestly want to know if you think I’m doing something wrong).

If I make mistakes (and I know I do !) then there are nearly always for the right reason (ie. trying too hard !) – hopefully you can all see that…

It is my intention to make public, the private blog that we’ve used through out the season. If anyone has any issue with this, please let me know (or remove your comments – which is the only reason I can think of for objecting).

So that’s it. The next time you’ll hear from me will be in the autumn (early October) – when I’ll be in touch, offering a service which I think will be even better than that provided this year.
It would be nice to think that most of you will be joining me for the next stage of the journey J

Thanks again for your ongoing support.

Andrew.