Daily write-up - Apr 4th (Aintree day 2)

Following just 1.5mm of rain overnight, day 2 of the Aintree festival gets underway on ground described as good, good to soft in places.

As was the case yesterday, there is going to be an element of guesswork involved in judging exactly how it will ride – but my guess is that it won’t be hugely different to yesterday.

Once again, we have a fair number of tips to support – but not quite so many ‘probables’.

That said, I think we have a stronger set of ‘possibles’ running for us – so with a following wind, who knows what might happen !

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Aintree

2:00

Maybe not too surprisingly, the market for this race is headed by a couple of horses who placed in the Supreme Novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

Josses Hill finished runner up in that race, with Sgt Reckless finishing like a train to take fourth.
It was a bit of an odd run from the latter, who previously had looked unlikely to relish the stamina demands of Cheltenham having shown his best form on relatively sharp tacks.

Quite how he will react to returned to a sharp track is anyones guess – but mine is that he won’t be far away…

However, if you like him (and I do – to a point), then you have to fancy Amore Alato.

He gave Sgt Reckless 3lb and beat him 3 lengths at Kempton on Boxing/Stephens day - so off level weights today, you have to fancy him to uphold the form (particularly as that was the second time he had finished ahead of him).

There is a chance that Sgt Reckless improved for the hold up tactics used that day – but all the same…

Since his victory at Kempton, Amore Alato has run a couple of fair races in defeat: behind Lac Fontana at Cheltenham and Irving at Kempton.
Those runs suggest that Amore Alato has limitations – but I’m prepared to forgive the first run because of the very heavy ground – and it’s possible that Irving didn’t do himself justice when subsequently disappointing at Cheltenham.

Amore Alato should love todays sharp track – and as the only confirmed front runner in the field, he could get an uncontested lead.

There is a chance that he will succumb to something close home – but I really do think he will run a big race.

Outside the top 2 in the market, Mijhar is the one that interests me most…

Rated 105 on the flat, he made a very impressive hurdling debut at Doncaster, before falling when beaten at Huntingdon.

That second run came on heavy ground though – and back on a more suitable surface, he could put his flat speed to good use.

I don’t think he is anywhere near as solid as Amore Alato – but he is capable of springing a surprise and therefore makes a good saver.

0.5pt win Amore Alato 14/1

0.25pt win Mijhar 12/1

2:30

I’ve turned this race round a few times – but I just can’t get the winner to drop out…

Instinctively I wanted to be with Don Cossack – but hand on heart I don’t think that 3 miles on a fast track and decent ground, is what he wants.

I don’t think the test will suit Many Clouds either – and I’m not a big fan of Holywell (despite his win at Cheltenham).

I could see Just a Par outrunning his odds – but I’ll be a little surprised if he wins – which leaves me with O’Faolains Boy and Wonderful Charm…

I’ve no real issue with either of these two – other than their prices aren’t great – and neither one looks rock solid.

O’Faolains Boy had a hard enough race at Cheltenham – and todays ground is likely to be plenty quick enough for him.

And whilst Wonderful Charm will probably appreciate todays step up in trip – it is not guaranteed – and I also think he has his limitations…

Gun to my head, I would select O’Faolains Boy – but he’s favourite – and the doubts I have over him mean there is little in the way of value at a current best price of 11/4…

3:05

As Grade 1 chases go, this is a poor one…

All things being equal, I would expect Module to be double figures for a race like this – yet he is 5/1 favourite (and legitimately so).

It probably tells you everything you need to know about the race, that the 11 year old Wishfull Thinking, who has never proved himself a true grade 1 chaser, is put in at just 11/2…

Bearing in mind the overall quality of the race, I think it is worth taking a chance on the mare, Petite Rose..

She is officially rated 154 – which is good way below the level normally required to win a grade 1 contest – though her 7lb sex allowance effectively puts her within 3lb of the top rated in this race…

Not that I am tipping her just because of that.

For much of the season Pepite Rose has been running on unsuitably soft ground. She managed to win on it first time out at Wetherby – but was caught out by the ground on her 2 subsequent runs.

However, when presented with decent ground last time out, she absolutely bolted in at Newbury.

Admittedly that was only in a class 2 handicap – but she won with any amount in hand – and a 9lb rise was the least she deserved for her efforts…

She will get her favoured ground today – and as it will only be her fifth run of the campaign, she should be at her peak.

The 2m4f trip is perfect for her and in a race that doesn’t contain a superstar, I think she is a very good bet at the 16/1 available this morning…

It will be fascinating to see how Ballynagour handles the promotion to grade 1 company – whilst if the ground was soft, I would have been very tempted by Boston Bob.

0.5pt win Pepite Rose 16/1

3:40

30 runners tackling what are generally considered the most formidable fences in the country – so how come I am absolutely convinced that Tatenen is going to run a huge race ?!

He’s attempted the Aintree fences twice before and not managed to get round – why should it be any different this time..?

Well, first thing first: anyone who watched the racing yesterday will know that the Aintree fences are no longer formidable.

Traditionalist (like myself !) can bemoan the situation – but it’s a fact. Jumping round Aintree is now only moderately more difficult that jumping round the brush hurdle track at Haydock ! – and significantly easier that jumping round most of grade 1 courses.

Not that I think Tatenen would struggle with the fences regardless.

He’s a decent enough jumper – it’s just that things did work out for him on his 2 previous visits.

I’ve watched his run in last seasons National and he was dealing with the fences absolutely fine until he fell. I’ve no idea what caused him to fall (it was difficult to see) but I’m happy to treat it as a one-off.

In fact, the 30 runner field is probably more of an issue, as it creates a lot of uncertainty. However, if Tatenen gets a bit of luck in running, I simply can’t see him not being there or thereabouts this afternoon.

He last time out run in the Byrne Group plate at the Cheltenham festival, is 2m4f handicap chase form of the highest order.

He split the 2 horses that hand finished first and second in this seasons Paddy Power gold Cup. Off the same mark today, I think he should be almost disputing favouritism !

I’ve put him up EW, in case he does bump into one (which is possible) – and I put up 3 horses who I think might be that ’one’, as savers…

The first is Standing Ovation. A massively progressive horse in the autumn, he’s had a couple of runs back since a mid winter break and shaped very well on the second of those (at the Cheltenham festival).

He’s is 2lb lower in the handicap today – and whilst he is dropped back in trip today, he’s a free running sort, so I don’t think that will be an issue.

The application of a hood for the first time, is an interesting move – and I could really see this scopey sort taking to the fences and running a huge race.

The second is Soll. I already tipped him twice this season – but he has been a little disappointing on both occasions. However, as a result he is now on the same handicap mark as he won from last March. Like Standing Ovation, he’s a free running sort, who is being cut back in distance - but I’m happy enough with that profile.
He proved in last years Grand National, that he can handle the course, and I can see him running another big race the afternoon.

The final one I want on side is Kauto Stone. He’s quite a small horse and a few years back, I wouldn’t have touched him over the National fences. But I doubt they will catch him out now – and he is so well handicapped, I just can’t let him go untipped.

A former grade 1 winner (when he beat First Lieutenant) he gets to run off a mark of 145 today – and with the genius that is Paul Carberry on top, he has to be worth a small saver at huge odds.

0.25pt EW Tatenen 25/1

0.25pt win Standing Ovation 12/1

0.125pt win Soll 33/1

0.125pt win Kauto Stone 33/1

4:15

I like this race, because it’s quite simple: you are either with Seeyouatmidnight – or you are not.

He stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field, in terms of form: he has proven himself over todays trip; he is relatively unexposed – and so potentially progressive; and he will be nice and fresh for todays contest…
What is there not to like about him ?!

Well, his trainer, Sandy Thompson, is not exactly a household name – and the horse has been doing it’s winning on northern tracks (Hexham, Musselburgh and Haydock).

In short, he’s not very fashionable…

Which is absolutely fine by me – in fact I would rather have them that way !

When I watched him win last time out at Haydock, he struck me as a Gold Cup winner of the future. Even if I’m right, that doesn’t mean that he will necessarily win today – but it does mean that he is serious value at 4/1+…

His last time out defeat of Mickie, Celestial Halo and Cross Kennon, was incredibly good form for a novice - and whilst I can accept that Celestial Halo didn’t run up to his rating, giving Mickie 9lb and a length beating in her ideal conditions still rates as form far superior to anything most of this field will ever achieve.

In theory, todays quicker ground is a slight worry – but he’s won a PTP on good ground, so I’ll be surprised if it is much of an issue.

If, for whatever reason, he doesn’t perform, then there are a whole host of other horses who might take advantage.
I wouldn’t want to particularly pick one out, though I do think that Cole Harden represents a bit of potential EW value at 33/1.

However, if Seeyouatmidnight does run up to form, then I think he will take the world of beating – and at the prices available, that makes him a cracking bet

0.75pt win Seeyouatmidnight 9/2

4:40

This is another one of those very tricky looking handicap hurdles – though it does look a bit easier to solve than the race that closed the card yesterday…

Maybe that’s just because I’m happier with the profile of the two that I’ve selected in the race: Alaivan and Clondaw Kaempfer.

I tipped the former for the County hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and he ran well enough to finish ninth in that race.

He was a little free that day so I would very much like to see Maurice Linehan get him settled this afternoon.

In fairness, he maybe felt he needed to light him up for that race because it was over 2 miles – and in all probability Alavain is better suited to 2m4f.

He gets that trip today and as a consequence, I feel I have to give him one more chance to build on the promise of his run in the Betfair Trophy.

Clondaw Kaempfer also needs to bounce back from a slightly below par run at Cheltenham, but as with Alaivan, I think there are good reason for thinking he might just do that…

He was given an overly aggressive ride by Richard Johnson in the Coral cup – up with the pace throughout, he led round the home turn but paid for his earlier exertions on the run in.

Wayne Hutchinson is a much more suitable jockey for a horse who has already shown good form over both course and distance - and who could still have plenty of improvement in him…

Of the others, then you have to respect the chances of the unexposed Stone Brook. If serious money came for him then I would be concerned..

However, all things being equal, I’m happy enough with the two I’ve gone for and hope that one of them will be able to come home in front.

0.25pt win Alaivan 16/1

0.25pt win Clondaw Kaempfer 14/1

5:15

I did briefly consider tipping I this race – but then I remembered that it’s not Cheltenham and consequently I don’t need to feel compelled tip in every race (thank goodness !).

Ofcourse, if I had done, then it would have been on the back of nothing more than educated guesswork – and even though I feel I’m quite good at guessing, you would probably prefer not to be following my guesses with your hard earned..!!

For what it’s worth, if I had taken a stab (or two !) at the race, then I would have gone with Lady Buttons and Queen Alphabet.

The former was very impressive in a 3 horse race at Wetherby last time (following a disappointing run at Cheltenham); whilst the latter looks interesting at a price, representing the stable of Peter Fahey and with Davy Russell aboard. She has not run since contesting a very hot bumper at Tipperary back in October – but it strikes me as significant that Fahey has sent her over for this…

There’s too much speculation involved in both however to make them tips, so I’ll just have a tiny wager on them and keep my fingers crossed that the lucky pin has done its job !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 2:00 Amore Alato 14/1

Aint 2:00 Mijhar 12/1

Aint 3:05 Pepite Rose 16/1

Aint 3:40 Tatenen 25/1

Aint 3:40 Standing Ovation 12/1

Aint 3:40 Soll 33/1

Aint 3:40 Kauto Stone 33/1

Aint 4:15 Seeyouatmidnight 9/2

Aint 4:40 Alaivan 16/1

Aint 4:40 Clondaw Kaempfer 14/1

* Ex TVB tips running this afternoon are as follows:

 TVB Tips
 

Selection Time Ballynagour 15:05 O'Faolains Boy 14:30 Tatenen 15:40 Soll 15:40

Cheltenham Tips

Selection Time Cole Harden 16:15 Wonderful Charm 14:30 Alaivan 16:50 Tanks for That 15:40 Ataglance 16:50

Thanks again to Dan, who helped identify a 16/1 winner yesterday !