Daily write-up - Feb 22nd

There are 4 meetings this afternoon: at Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK, plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

It’s great to see the rain starting to relent – and in the fullness of time, the going should improve and form lines become more predictable.

However, that will take a few more weeks (of dry-ish conditions), so in the short term at least, we will still have to battle with the uncertainty that has blighted the year so far…

That said, we can be pretty certain that the going today at both Newcastle and Chepstow will be somewhere between heavy and desperate – so I’ve tried to ensure that the tips from these two locations all have their swimming proficiency badges !!

I issued tips in 6 race, but one of them – Super Villan – has been declared a non runner…

He was probably my best bet last night, when he was installed as a 10/1 shot.

However, at half that price this morning, he was a marginal call.

Maybe his connections felt the same way…

Anyway, I am reasonably optimistic about the chances of the remaining tips.

Clearly, it makes sense to continue to tread cautiously – but I would be hopeful that we might get a result or two falling our way this afternoon.

Time will tell, I guess…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Newcastle

2:20

Kudu Country was my original start point for this race…

He caught my eye on his belated seasonal debut in a hot handicap at Kempton last month.

He led for most of the race that day and was in front and going OK, turning for home.

Maybe not too surprisingly, lack of race fitness caught him out up the straight – but he still managed to finish a highly creditable fourth behind some talented and progressive rivals.

With that run under his belt – and off a 1lb lower mark today, over a trip and on ground, that will both suit fine – and with the possibility of an uncontested lead, he simply has to go well…

My main issue with him, is that whilst on chasing form, he appears well handicapped, that isn’t really the case on his hurdling form.

Furthermore, as an 8 year old, his scope for improvement is limited…

I can’t ignore his chances – but I would be fearful that he might be beaten by a more progressive horse…

If that is the case, then I’m hoping it will be in the shape of Angelot Du Berlais.

He’s not run over hurdles since bleeding at the Cheltenham festival last season. However, he has had a couple of recent runs on the AW, and so should be cherry ripe for todays contest…

Those 2 runs were reasonable enough – but the case for him is built upon the form he showed as a juvenile hurdler last campaign – and in particular his run in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, just over a year ago…

That is always a very good 4 year old hurdle race and Angelot finished third in it, behind Chris Pea Green and Zamdy Man.

Those 2 are now rated 142 and 150 respectively, which suggests that Angelot Du Berlais could be well handicapped off a mark of just 125.

Furthermore, as a half brother to the very smart Afsoun, there must be a fair chance that he will ultimately end up a good deal better than his current rating…

Angelot showed a good attitude both at Huntingdon and when winning his previous race at Ludlow – and he should be able to handle today deep ground.

He looks to me like the one horse in the race who could be a fair bit better than his current mark and as such, he is the main bet – with Kudu Country the saver…

0.5pt win Angelto Du Berlais 8/1

0.25pt win Kudu Country 6/1

2:55

We were on Smoking Aces last time out in the West Wales National, at Ffos Las.

He finished third that day, behind Emperors Choice, running a highly respectable race and probably just losing out because of his sometimes ponderous jumping…

In truth, there is always the chance that his jumping might find him out again today – though an extra 5 furlongs should see the field going even more slowly and therefore the ability to negotiate obstacles at speed shouldn’t be a significant requirement !

The other big thing that Smoking Aces has in his favour today, is the man on top…

As I’ve said many times in the past, I’m a big fan of Maurice Linehan and his 5lb claim is an absolute gift. I’m taking nothing away from Richie McCleran by saying that compared to his last run, I would view Smoking Aces today as being 5lb lower in the handicap than he was last time - and over such a marathon trip, that is significant.

It almost goes without saying that todays race is going to be a war of attrition.

Just over 4 miles in heavy ground will take some getting – and only the fittest, hardiest sorts, are going to get home.

Smoking Aces was running on again close home last time over 3m4f in the mud at Ffos Las so I would be very optimistic that he will relish todays test…

Of his opponents, then I can see the Pricewise angle on both Wyck Hill and Safran De Cotte – and I would also expect Royal Knight to run a big race.

However the one I would probably fear most is the outsider, Tarquinius…

On recent form he has no chance, but it is only a year ago, since he was second to Jadanli in the Thystes off a mark 3lb higher than todays…

He will have no issue with the trip or the ground – and in trainer Gordon Elliot he has a man behind him capable of winning a race such as this.

I suspect Tarquinius might just have one last big race win left in him. Lets hope it’s not today !!

0.5pt win Smoking Aces 9/1

4:30

There is nothing particularly clever about opting for Sustainability in this race…

A relatively unexposed Venetia Williams runners, who has finished first or second in 10 of his 16 races under rules, and who will be well suited by todays test of 2m4f in heavy ground.  I certainly expected him to be a bit shorter in the betting than the 6/1 available…

He was late returning to action this season, with his first outing of his campaign over hurdles at Taunton, just last month…

And despite being beaten 42 lengths that day, he actually ran very well, disputing the lead with the eventual winner, Virak, until that one powered clear up the home straight…

On the back of 8 months off the course, it is quite possible that Sustainability needed the run – though he lost little in defeat to a rival who won easily again this week and is likely to be rated close to 150 the next time he runs…

In all probably, Sustainability is a better horse over fences anyway.

He won a couple of times over the bigger obstacles as a novice last season and looked the sort who would improve with his novice campaign behind him.

He should be spot on today for his return to fences and with Robbie Dunne taking 3lbs off his back, I think he will take plenty of beating…

That said, he faces some quite stiff competition today: despite top weight, Consigliere is back on a mark that he can win off; whist Wicklow Lad and Fentara both ran well in defeat last time out and Sharney Sike is chasing a hatrick.

However I am optimistic that Sustainability will be up to the challenge ahead…

0.5pt win Sustainability 6/1

Kempton

3:50

The Betbright chase (formerly the Racing Post chase) looks as competitive as you would expect for the prize money on offer, but I think Niceonefrankie warrants a small play to keep going the tremendous run of Venetia Williams and Aiden Coleman…

In fact, it strikes me as quite significant that Coleman chooses to go to Kempton for just the one ride for Venetia (he has 2 others as well) when she has fancied runners at both Chepstow – and more significantly – Newcastle…

And depending on how you want to look at it, the case for Niceonefrnankie can either be considered quite strong – or a little flawed !

On the positive side, he ran probably his best trace last season, in defeat at the Kempton track, so we know he will have no issues with the course.

He also trounced Double Ross on his seasonal debut this campaign and as that one is now rated 19lb higher, Niceonefrankie looks very well handicapped on that piece of form, running off a mark just 7lb higher today…

However, both of those races were over trips at least half a mile shorter than Niceonerankie faces today – so that has to be a doubt.

He did run a creditable fifth over 3 mils last time at Doncaster however, so there must be affair chance that he will last home OK.

Certainly as a potential improver, from a yard that is currently flying, he looked big enough in the betting to warrant a small chance…

Cases of sorts could be made for most of his opponents, though it was Planet of Sound and Tour Des Champs that interested me most…

The former is probably still fairly weighted on a mark just 4lb higher than he won from last time – though this is a much deeper race; and whilst Tour Des Champs is potentially very well handicapped, I’m not entirely convinced that Kempton will play to his strengths (plus he is now quite short in the betting).

0.25pt win Niceonefrankie 16/1

In the opener on the card, I was half tempted by Present View…

He looked a progressive novice chaser earlier in the season and could well benefit from a mid season rest.

The race doesn’t look overly competitive either – but I still didn’t feel there was quite enough margin in a quote of 9/2, with the likes of Ballinvarig and Brody Bleu in opposition…

It’s difficult to have a strong view on the Adonis hurdle at 2:05, as it’s more a race to be watched and learnt from…

That said, if forced to bet, I would probably side with Commissioned, who showed a lot of promise on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham, and was a decent sort on the flat…

In the Pendil novice chase at 2:40, I would slightly favour Fox Appeal over Balder Succes.

However, 6/4 is far too short for me to consider getting involved…

At a price, I could see Gods Own running a big race – though he is held on last time out form by Fox Appeal…

It is difficult to see beyond Irving in the Dovecote novice hurdle at 3:15 – though any money for Cup Final could well be significant…

I could see a scenario where Amore Alto nicked the race – and I could also see Germany Calling running better than his odds imply.

However, I couldn’t make either of them solid bets…

The handicap hurdle at 4:25 looks between the top 3 in the betting and as such, Minella on Line held some appeal, as the outsider of those 3…

The trouble is, I’m not sure he really wants to be dropped back in trip and I also think that the favourite, Full Shift will take some beating…

Chepstow

4:10

A class 5 chase on a Saturday might seem like a slightly strange race for the best bet of the day, but there you go…!

It might also seems bit odd to be taking 8/1 about a horse who was a 50/1 shot last time out, when he finished behind a couple of todays rivals – but I think there are good reason for wanting to get involved with Enchanting Smile today…

First things first, Enchanting Smile might have finished third behind Brandon Thomas and Sablazo last time out, but rounding the home turn, he looked by far the most likely winner…

He didn’t quite get home that day, but that was almost certainly because he was too keen in the early part of the race.

Connections have reached for a first time hood this afternoon, and if that has the desired effect (a hood is generally fitted to help a horse settle) then I would expect him to finish his race much better this afternoon..

Even without that, he is weighted to finished in a line with the two that beat him last time – so there seemed little justification for the bookmakers having priced him up a few points bigger than them on the opening show…

In a low grade race such as this, there is always the chance that one of the runners will show greatly improved form – but that is a chance we will just have to take.

I feel comfortable that Enchanted Times should be able to get the better of two of the market leaders – and as today will only be his third outing over fences, he should also have a fair bit of scope for improvement.

At the end of the day, I think he sets a decent standard in what is a poor race and early odds of 8/1 definitely represented a bit of value.

0.75pt win Enchanting Smile 8/1

It was disappointing to see Super Villan taken out of the 1:55 race – but considering the price crash, it was maybe understandable…

I had him down as the most solid option in the race - but one or two of his rivals would probably have been capable of beating him, if everything had fallen right for them…

Big Society would be the most dangerous – provided his jumping holds up.

That is far from guaranteed, but at the current 15/2, he might be worth a small risk…

In the 2:30 race I was half tempted by top weight Swynmor…

He has run much better than it appears in his last two races and I would expect him to go very well today.
He almost won a grace 1 hurdle over this course and distance last season so off a mark off 129 (minus a 10lb claim) could be thrown in today..

The issue was purely the early price – but that doesn’t mean he can’t be Top Pick J

The handicap chase at 3:05 looks a bit of a minefield…

All things being equal, I would make Grey Gold the most likely winner.
However, he’s favourite – and has to carry 11st7lb.

Easy enough to swerve, on balance…

Finally, I guess there is a chance that Tullyeskar Hill could run away with the 3:40 race – but if he doesn’t it looks another very tight contest…

I would expect Ugly Bug to run another decent race – but I’ll be a little surprised if he comes home in front…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newc 2:20 Angelot Du Berlais 8/1

Newc 2:20 Kudu Country 6/1

Newc 2:55 Smoking Aces 9/1

Newc 4:30 Sustainability 6/1

Kemp 3:50 Niceonefrankie 16/1

Chep 4:10 Enchanting Smile 8/1

Mentions

Newc 2:55 Tarquinius (S)

Kemp 1:30 Present View (P)

Kemp 2:05 Commissioned (S)

Kemp 4:25 Minella on Line (O)

Chep 1:55 Big Society (C)

Chep 3:05 Grey Gold (P)

Top Picks

Chep 2:30 Swynmor