Starting with the
headline figures:
TVB tips
Total staked: 20.75pts
Total profit:
-4.34pts
ROI -21%
*Adjusted
figures
Total staked:
20.75pts
Total profit:
-6.22pts
ROI -30%
*The adjusted
figures assume that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit
regardless of whether it wins the race.
So, a losing month –
and I can’t even blame bad luck for it L
That said, a loss of just
over 4pts in a month when the form book could be virtually thrown out of the
window, can’t really be considered a disaster…
Ofcourse, I acted to stop
losses getting any bigger, by greatly reducing the number of tips.
The 20.75pts staked were
spread across just 46 horses competing in 41 races – both numbers significantly
shy of those recorded for November and December…
In terms of placings,
then the 46 horses achieved the following:
1st – 4
2nd – 5
3rd – 9
4th - 8
So after the ‘blip’ in
December, when 1st places headed that table, they are back in more
familiar territory !
I tend to target 50% of the
horses finishing in the first 4 – and with 26, that target was met this month.
However, I also target 25% of the horses finishing first or second – so that
came up a little shy (with just 20%)
Interestingly, if you
combine the placing for December and January, you end up with the
following:
1st – 17
2nd – 14
3rd – 12
4th – 11
Which is a much more
balanced ‘scorecard’ – and suggests that the numbers may have been affected
simply by where the month happened to end !
Certainly, when you are
looking at such a short time period, that is always a possibility – but I do
think there were a couple of others factors at play…
The first of those has been
the weather – or more specifically the rain…
As I’ve said on numerous
occasions, the issue with rain is that you don’t know what effect is has
actually had on the ground, until it is too late (ie. after the race has been
run).
Obviously you can make an
educated guess – but that tends to be about all you can do, and with drainage
and drying times varying from track to track, you end up guessing the effect of
one of the most important variables.
It was pouring down in the first day of the
first (remember Cheltenham on New Years day !) and it was still raining on the
last day of the month. That’s a long time to be guessing the state of the ground
for (and the situaiton looks set to continue !).
The other factor that I
think affected performance this month, was the Christmas period…
As I said last month, that
took a lot out of me and whilst that may not have been obvious at the time (we
continued to do quite well), I think it was a factor in the poorer performance
this month.
It may seem a little
odd, but you guys tend to only see the effect of things a few weeks after they
have happened (it was the same situation at the start of the season, when it
took 2 or 3 weeks for the winners to start to flow). That’s because I am
watching races and finding things which will only benefit us a few weeks later
(ie. when the horses next run !).
Anyway, suffice to say, I’m
not feeling as exhausted now ! – so we should only have the weather to worry
about in February !!
In addition to the 4
winners, there were 3 other tips that traded at 2 or less in-running.
As a consequence, we can’t
really consider ourselves unlucky this month (though there were 3 others who
nearly traded at 2 and would have made that figure look very different if they
had – but, you have to draw the line somewhere !)
So, that’s about it really…
My decision to reign back on the tipping – particularly
towards the end of the month, has resulted in my quietest ever period in terms
of daily write-ups.
That said, I will continue to give my thoughts on a daily
basis, so hopefully non of you feel too short changed !!
In terms of going forward, then February has started in a
very similar vein.
Obviously there is nothing I can do about the weather –
though I might start chancing my arm a little more (the observant amongst you
will have noticed that I could have hit winners on 3 of the last 4 days – it’s
just a shame I chose to tip on the one day when that wasn’t the case
!).
That said, I do feel that proceeding with caution remains
the prudent thing to do…
We are barely over half way through the season – with the
climax still ahead of us. I want to ensure that by the time Cheltenham comes
round, we are all in a position where we are playing with money won earlier in
the season.
I’m sure that’s a situation you would all like to be in
as well…
TVB.
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