No joy with either of the tips this afternoon – and I
ended up just grateful that I’d ‘listened’ to Ruby and eased off the staking
with Roi Du Mee.
Ruby’s judgement was spot on – he was outclassed
!
Mind you, the entire field were outclassed behind the
most impressive winner of a distance chase that I’ve seen all season.
If Last Instalment arrives in the same form on Gold Cup
day, he’ll take some stopping.
My suspicion is that he wants ground on the soft side –
but as the current top 3 in the betting want it quick, that’s not a bad place to
be (particularly with the weather as it currently is !).
The days other tip, Supreme Bob, ran a nothing kind of a
race at Exeter…
He eventually plugged on for fourth place - but at no
point did he look like wining.
Don’t expect to see him tipped again in the immediate
future…
So that was it for the Tips – but it was quite an
interesting day for the Top Picks…
Now I would be the first to admit that the Top Picks
haven’t set the world alight so far this season – however, I do think there is
some mileage in the theory behind them…
What I’m trying to do with them, is find horses that have
been over-backed early (so are no longer at attractive prices when I issue the
tips) – but which I believe are the most likely winners of the races…
The 3 horses I put up as Top Picks this morning, Bailey
Green, Fingal Bay and Tarabela were available at best prices of 4/1, 3/1 and
11/4 when I sent out the tips this morning (I know, because I backed them
!).
Come the off, they were 6/1, 9/2 and 5/1 - and that was
their conventional SPs, which I’m sure could have been beaten with a little
effort…
So, I was right in my view that they were under-priced
this morning !
I was also right, in the case of Fingal Bay and Tarabela,
that they were the best horses in the race (Bailey Green was the best horse in
his race as well, he was just running in the wrong race !).
A 9/2 and a 5/1 winner, will certainly help the Top Picks
balance sheet – but also show how difficult it is, when you have to tip horses
in a fixed window and are therefore realistically only able to take the prices
available at that point in time…
Anyway, a good day for the Top Picks – but not such a
good day for the mentions…
In fairness they were all quite speculative (apart from
Don Cossack) and Tiger Roll ran a very good race to finish second in the
opener.
Good as Gold also ran pretty much as I expected – whilst
Icelip showed a deal of promise in the bumper (though he will need to learn to
settle if he’s ever to win a race).
The weather is still casting a shadow over things, with
tomorrows meeting at Plumpton needing to pass a second inspection in the
morning...
I'll take a proper look at the cards this evening
and will advise around 8:00 tomorrow morning, on whether there will be any
tips.
TVB.
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