Daily write-up - Dec 27th

Another busy day, with 5 NH meetings, at Kempton, Leicester and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland…

As you may have gathered, there was a distinct chance of me going mad, tipping this morning !

I had 9 possible races – which really is as many as I would ever want to consider…

Ultimately, I tipped in 7 of the races – which is still a lot.

However, I just feel that the racing is there to be tipped in today – and that’s not always the case…

Whether we’ll be successful, is of course a different matter. However, win, lose or draw, I am happy with each tip I’ve issued – so let’s just hope the run of form continues…

Anyway, no time for a pre-amble today – it’s straight on to the rationale – starting with a tremendous card at Kempton…

Kempton

2:00

I do like this race, because I feel it is one which, if you work through, the winner will drop out…!

In theory, I could make a case for the top 4 in the betting – however, the race conditions, enable me to narrow that down to one.

Utipie Des Bordes has run a couple of very good races recently, but she is relatively small mare and I just think that 11st7lb (including her riders claim) on very soft ground, is going to be too much of an ask for her today…

Mickie might also struggle with her relatively big weight – plus she has been raised 7lb for a hard fought victory last time out…

There shouldn’t be a lot between Mrs Peachy and Scholastica, based on their last time out runs – but if you watch that race, there is no doubt which one you would want to be on over todays extra half mile – and on heavy ground…

Scholastica was fairly eating up the hill that day, whilst Mrs Peachy appeared to have had enough (though a bad mistake at he second last didn’t help her chances).

Of the others in the race, the one that catches my eye, is Alder Mairi…

She ran in the same race as Scholastica and Mrs Peachy last time out and actually appeared to be going best of all, entering the home straight.

However, she weakened from the second last hurdle and eventually finished a well beaten seventh.

On the face of it, there appears little reasons why she will be able to turn around the form today - despite being 3lb better off.

That may well be the case, however, I am sure she will relish the heavy ground (she has a very pronounced knee action) and if her jockey can somehow preserve her stamina, she is weighted to go very close…

In summary, I would expect Scholastica to win – but if there is to be a surprise, Alder Mairi looks the most likely one to provide it.

0.75pt win Scholastica 4/1

0.25pt win Alder Mairi 25/1

3:05

We are turning to our new friend Dan Skelton in this – and his promising ex hunter chaser, Forest Walker…

Forest Walker was a mention when he made his debut for Skelton in a Uttoxeter handicap last month…

He absolutely dotted up that day  - and was turned out under a penalty just 5 days later (carrying in excess of 12st).

That appeared to be a mistake on behalf of the rookie trainer – as Forest Walker ran no sort of a race. Lesson learnt, I think…

Forest Walker has been given 7 weeks to recover from his exertions – but now has to run off his new handicap mark (13lb higher than at Uttoxeter).

Whether his new mark will be beyond him, is anyones guess. However, I’m pretty sure he would have won at Uttoxeter with another stone on his back, so I suspect it is still a workable mark.

As with the previous race, I’m happy to take on quite a few in this race, on account of the trip (particularly in the bad ground). It seems a very strange race for the top 3 in the handicap to be running in – that’s for sure…

I’ll be irritated if On Trend wins (saver alert !) – but acknowledge that todays conditions are nearly perfect for him.

He could have been a saver, but instead I’ve opted for the novice, American Spin…

Like On Trend, he is falling down the handicap and 3 miles in soft ground should be right up his street.

There is also the chance that he will get an uncontested lead – and as Annacotty showed yesterday, that can be quite a bonus round Kempton…

0.5pt win Forest Walker 8/1

0.25pt win American Spin 25/1

3:40

This looks such a competitive race, I maybe should have swerved it – but at 20/1 I simply had to give one last chance to Milord…

We were on him 2 runs ago, when he was very unlucky not to collect at Ascot. Lack of pace did for him that afternoon, as he finished like a train to take third place…

A fortnight later, it was a similar situation.

Lack of pace again caused issues – though this time a mistake at the second last, prevented him from getting as close as he might have been able…

With Fergall in todays race, there should be no hanging about – and with 6lb less to carry (1lb lower in the handicap plus 5lb for his jockey claim), I’m sure Milord is a very well handicapped horse…

Unfortunately, this is an extremely strong contest…

We were on the afore mentioned Fergall when he was a game winner at Huntingdon last time out.

He is likely to have come on for that run – and even with an extra 8lb today, he should still put up a bold show today.

Bohemian Rhapsody is another one that we were on last time out, when he was an unlucky second at Newbury.

He is up 7lb for that run – and drops back half a mile in trip – but I still expect him to run very well…

Vibrato Valtat is yet another one who should go well – so, like I say, not an easy race !

However, I think we need to give Milord at least one more chance to prove that he is up to winning a race such as this.

0.25pt EW Milord 20/1

The main attraction on the Kempton card, is obviously Sprinter Sacre, who makes his seasonal reappearance in the Desert Orchid chase at 2:30…

Clearly, he is the best horse in the race, by miles – but heavy ground on his seasonal debut, will see him as vulnerable as he will ever be…

More than that, Sire De Grugy is a reasonable foe – so victory is not a formality…
That said, provided Nicky Henderson has got the ‘Black Aeroplane’ anywhere near right (and I can’t believe he would be running him if he isn’t), then it really should be a case of how far…

Fingers crossed all the same…

Leopardstown

1:50

Gambling Girl really caught my eye when a hugely impressive winner of a grade 3 mares hurdle at Down Royal on November 1^st…

Despite making a mess of the last, she still won that race by 8 lengths in the style of a horse going places…

Her next run was against the geldings in the Grade 1 Royal Bond novice hurdle at Fairyhouse.

She was sent off an 8/1 shot for that race, but ruined her chance by refusing to settle…

Maybe not too surprisingly, connections have today reached for a hood. That is price of equipment which often helps headstrong horses settle in their races.

Hopefully it will have the desire effect this afternoon…

Even if it does however, Gambling Girl will have to be pretty good, to win todays race.

She is reopposed by The Tullow Tank and Arctic Fire – the horses that finished first and third in the Royal Bond (with Arctic Fire looking an unlucky loser).
In addition, the unbeaten Moyle Park is likely to make a formidable rival.

However, if Gambling Girl is as good as I thought she was when she won at Down Royal, then in receipt of at least 7lb from the main protagonists, I think she could perform very well…

0.25pt win Gambling Girl 20/1

2:55

I’ve talked about these high value Irish handicap chases in the past (don’t mention Cootamundra !) and with a value of Euro 190K, the Paddy Power chase is the daddy of them all…

It’s the kind of race that connections will likely have targeted for some time – so expect it to be won by a young improver, who has not yet fully shown it’s hand…

Cause of Causes has a lot of mileage on his clock, considering he is only 5 years old…

However, most of those miles are over hurdles, a discipline in which he is currently rated 147…

It was off a mark just 5lb lower than that, that Cause of Causes won the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot – one of the most valuable handicap hurdles run during the season.

He won that race as a 4 year old, in heavy ground – which was a tremendous performance…

Trying to operate over hurdles off a mark in the 150s proved beyond Cause of Causes, so maybe not too surprisingly, his attention was turned to fences…

Initially, this didn’t seem to go too well – and as a consequence, Cause of Causes was given an opening handicap mark of 128 over fences – almost 20lb below his hurdle rating…

However, this still didn’t seem overly generous based on his first 2 runs in handicaps, but on his third and most recent run, things looked very different…

Cause of Causes was beaten by a nose in a 26K handicap chase at Fairyhouse…

All of Cause of Causes form has been over a 2 mile trip. However, almost without exception, he finishes strongly in his races so it is maybe not too surprising, considering the size of todays pot, that it is only today that  connections choose to step him up to 3  miles.

The soft ground won’t be an issue – the handicap mark won’t be an issue – so if he does show any improvement for the extra mile, he has to go very close….

0.5pt win Cause of Causes 12/1

Leicester

1:40

This looks quite an open race – but I’m optimistic that Chestertern might have sufficient improvement in him to be able to take it…

Chestertern is only 6 years old and today will only be his 9th race under rules.

Last season, as a novice hurdler, he ran 3 times to get a mark – and then duly bolted up, by 17 lengths, on his handicap debut at Warwick.

Not too surprisingly, the handicapper didn’t take too kindly to that and he got a 17lb rise in the weights for his efforts…

His final 2 runs over hurdles last season were disappointing – but Chestertern looks very much a chaser, so it was no surprise to see him put over fences on his seasonal debut…

A run over an inadequate 2miles, behind the very useful Pendra at Carlisle (where he was staying on well) was followed up by a run over 3 miles at Bangor (where he found the trip too far – but travelled well for most of the contest)

There can be little doubt that todays 2m4f trip is the right one for Chestertern – but his 2 runs this season have got him valuable chasing experience and a couple of pounds off his rating – result !

I suspect that we will see the real Chestertern step forward today –and if that is the case, then I think his rivals are in for a tough time !

0.5pt win Chestertern 8/1

I really wanted to have a go at the opening race on the Leicester card.

Amazingly the bookmakers put in Christopher Wren as an even money chance last night (he is now best priced 10/3 !).

However, it was only a few of them – and they gradually started correcting thing this morning…

A case of sorts could be made for quite a few in the field – but the one whom I think will take the beating is Baile Anrai.

Unfortunately, he is now favourite L

The biggest concern with him, is the trip, He is stepping back from 3 miles to 2 – which is a big drop.

However there are 3 potential front runners in the race (including Christopher Wren) so the contest should be run at a serious pace.

Things were changing too quickly this morning for me to make Baile Anrai a tip – but I do think he will win, so he has therefore become the first Top Pick is a few days…

In the last race on the card, I think our old found Hartside will be nearly impossible to keep out of the frame…

He ran a cracker last Saturday at Haydock and gets to run off the same mark today – and on his preferred soft ground…

The only trouble is, he’s a 5/1 shot – and there are at least a couple I would be afraid of.

I did consider putting him up EW – but if the recent run has taken the edge of him, I would feel silly…

Once again, I am letting him go – but with some reservations about taking that course of action…

Limerick

2:35

As I mentioned the other day, I’m a big fan of Adrian Maguire…

He doesn’t have many runners nowadays but the ones he does have are invariably worth looking out for (unless they are debutants, running on the AW !).

Indian Outlook is a young horse who has only run 5 time under rules- and just the once over fences..

However, that one run resulted in a comfortable win in a decent beginners chase at Sligo – and suggested he might have a bright future over the bigger obstacles…

I find it particularly interesting that following that victory, Indian Outlook has only run once - and that was back over hurdle.

It strikes me that with a rating of 123, Maguire knows that he has got a horse handicapped to go to war with and didn’t want to risk the rating by running him over fences before he’s had chance to go for a decent pot.

That chance comes today – with  Euro 50K up for grabs…

Obviously there is a risk with one so inexperienced, taking on a big field of handicappers – but in addition to his run over fences under rules, Indian Outlook also has a couple of runs in the PTP field to his name.

I’ll be a bit surprised if the hustle and bustle proves to much for him – and if it doesn’t I think he could be capable of going very close.

0.5pt win Indian Outlook 14/1

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 2:00 Scholastica 4/1

Kemp 2:00 Alder Mairi 25/1

Kemp 3:05 Forest Walker 8/1

Kemp 3:05 American Spin 25/1

Kemp 3:40 Milord 20/1

Leic 1:40 Chestertern 8/1

Leop 1:50 Gambling Girl 20/1

Leop 2:55 Cause of Causes 12/1

Lim 2:35 Indian Outlook 14/1

Mentions

Kemp 3:05 On Trend (O)

Leic 3:15 Hartside (C)

Top Picks

Leic 12:35 Baile Anrai