I have to say that I found the results of the 2 races involving todays tips, tough to take…
Whilst on the one hand, both horses ran really good races and therefore justified me tipping them; or the other hand, they were both beaten pointless…
Again, I can accept that, but what I find more difficult to accept, is the improvement shown by the 2 horses that beat them…
In the Cork Grand National, Unoccupied was hammered into 4/1 favouritism; travelled and jumped really well – and then battled his way to the line.
Without Sword Fish in the race, he would have been a really worthy winner.
However, Swordfish was in the race and despite being seemingly exposed, he found phenomenal improvement to win doing hand springs…
He is likely to be handed a significant rise in the weights for his victory (I would expect a stone, at very least) – though I’m sure the 32K Euro first price will act as some consolation for his owners…
At Huntingdon, the victory of Lookout Mountain, felt even worse…
I put him up as a mention at Wetherby on Friday – and he ran a fair, if unspectacular, race…
He was 4/1 early that day – but then drifted out to 7/1…
Just two days after a hard race, I honestly thought he would be withdrawn today (which is why I didn’t mentioned him). However, connections were clearly much happier with the early price on offer and the 12/1 had shrunk to 5/1 at the off…
As I said this morning, it was an uncompetitive race – and if you could find a well handicapped horse, it was there for the taking…
Well, despite how it looked on Friday, Lookout Mountain was clearly a very well handicapped horse: he cantered through the race and absolutely hacked up.
Night Alliance ran a highly respectable race to finish third.
He may well have hung on for second if he’d absolutely had to – though the 3m2f trip did seem to stretch him a little.
Next time out, over half a mile less (and possibly fences), he will take some beating…
The moral of the two stories above: however confident you might feel, you are always likely to be a step or two behind the JP Macmanus and John Magnier…
Earlier in the afternoon, Snowed In ran an absolute stinker at Carlisle.
Maybe the experience over fences has affected his confidence. Whatever, don’t expect to be seeing his name in the write-up in the immediate future.
The favourites for the 2 small field novice/intermediate races at Carlisle, were indeed turned over. However it was not by either of the mentions…
Knock a Hand ran a good race to chase home the impressive Many Clouds. On this showing, Knock a Hand should have a future over fences.
Violin Davies didn’t run as well behind Cloudy Too. She seemed to blow up about half a mile form home, which left me wondering why connections had chosen to travel so far for her debut…
The stayers chase was won most convincingly by Global Power. If he can go on from this, he could pick up another nice chase or two this season.
The mention, Kris Cross, ran a fair race to finish third and should have little problem wining a chase himself.
At Huntingdon, there was drama in the novice chase, when hot favourite Smad Place unshipped Robert Thornton after the final fence.
In truth, his jumping to that point had not been great – and on this showing, the RSA chase looks a bit of a pipe dream…
Strawberry Hill ran a sound race in the handicap chase – but found a few too good.
The winner wasn’t one I had identified this morning, but Gandalf, a previous 15 chase maiden.
In fairness, he had shown some decent from in the past and off a reduced mark came good with avengence.
There is little I can say about the run of Top Show in the finale…
On this evidence, Dean Ivory should stick to training sprinters !
Finally, at Cork, Sizing Rio was an impressive winner of the novice chase.
His cause was helped enormously by the withdrawal of favourite Felix Younger, However, he won so impressively you had to wonder whether he would have won regardless.
Maybe we’ll find out in the fullness of time….
At the moment, I’m considering not tipping tomorrow.
It been a very intense 3 days – and I do feel like I might benefit from a day off, to stand back and reflect on things.
It was always my intention to start the season slowly – and build up and that is still what I plan to do.
I feel that the last 3 days have pretty much brought me back up to speed, so expect to see the staking start to increase from here on in.
I’ll make a final decision on whether tomorrow will be a blank day, first thing in the morning – and advise accordingly…
TVB.
Sunday, 3 November 2013
Daily write-up - Nov 3rd
After the high octane excitement of yesterday, the offerings are a little more mundane today…
In southern Ireland, Cork hosts the best meeting of the day; whilst there are also meetings at Huntingdon and Carlisle in the UK.
As was the case on Friday evening, I was forced to issue a tip the night before because of pressure on the price…
I really don’t like doing this – but my options are limited…
I can either do what I did; leave it until the morning and accept that the price is likely to have gone – or look to find another horse in the race.
If anyone has a real issue with me tipping the night before - in these circumstances - please let me know.
I would really have liked to issue the days other tip last night as well !!
Night Alliance opened up at 11/1 – but was soon cut.
7/1 is a fair enough price – but it is quite a drop on what could have been achieved.
It goes to show how difficult it is to stay ahead, the way we are playing the game.
Still, there is nothing like a challenge, is there :0
On to the rationale for todays tips then…
Cork
3:25
The high-light of the afternoons racing, is the Cork Grand National.
Run over 3 and a half miles on soft ground, this is likely to be an attritional affair.
Ideally, you want a horse with a light weight and proven stamina.
With only 9st 13lb on his back, Unoccupied meets the first criteria - even if he doesn’t meet the second.
That said, he is only 7 years old – and won a PTP over 3 miles in the soft as a 5 year old, so it will be a little surprising if it is a lack of stamina that caches him out.
Certainly, he plugged on well enough on his seasonal debut in heavy ground at Galway, to suggest todays marathon distance will be within his compass.
Time will tell, I guess…
He showed himself to be a gradually progressive animal last season – when 15 runs during the campaign suggested there is little wrong with his constitution !
It is not unreasonable to expect some improvement in his second season under rules and with a pipe-opener under his belt, I can see him running very well today.
Him aside, I was struggling to find much in the race.
It seems significant that Mark Walsh has his only ride of the day aboard the JP McManus owned Tom Horn. However, that one really didn’t look like he was crying out of today’s trip when fading close home over the 3miles of the Munster national.
You obviously have to be fearful of the JP owned horses in this kind of race, the best of whom may prove to be the bottom horse, Sword Fish.
However, he doesn’t look to have the same potential as Unoccupied, whom I am quite happy to have on board as the tip.
0.5pt win Unoccupied 11/1
In the previous race on the card, Felix Younger is expected to maintain his unbeaten record over fences.
He was a very good hurdler (finished second to Simonsig in the 2m4f novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival) and the early signs are that he could be just as good over fences.
If he doesn’t live up to expectations however, I think Sizing Rio could be the one to take advantage.
He was also a fair novice hurdler – and I suspect he will make a better chaser.
An interesting race to watch, whatever the outcome…
Huntingdon
3:30
Initially, I wasn’t overly taken with the Huntington card – but then, as is so often the case, I looked a little deeper – and hey presto !!
Simply, I couldn’t leave Night Alliance untipped (well, I guess if his price had crashed completely, I could have – but you know what I mean !)
He is potentially a very well handicapped horse, running a very weak race.
A combination I’m always on the look out for J
On the downside, prior to his recent come back run, he had been off the course for 18 months. Additionally, I’m a little surprised to see him running over a trip as far as todays - but I’ll put my trust in his trainer.
Certainly, if I ignore those 2 concerns, he looks a tremendous bet.
He won a competitive chase off a mark of 110 – and today gets to run off a mark of 103.
He also showed that he was in really good heart on his comeback run, where he ran and jumped with great enthusiasm, prior to tiring late on.
Provided that run has brought him on, he really should take the beating today.
As I mentioned, this really doesn’t look the strongest of races, with Dom Lukka, a short priced favourite.
He won over course and distance last time out, but a 10lb rise will make life a lot tougher for him today.
Most of that weight rise will be offset by the claim of his rider – but he is replacing Noel Fehily in the saddle, so I would want 7lb for that !
On balance, the rest of the field look beatable, so provided Night Alliance is on his ‘A’ game (or close to it), I think he will take the beating.
0.5pt win Night Alliance 7/1
Earlier on the card, Smad Place makes his chasing debut.
He is already favourite for the RSA chase at the festival, so connections will be hoping for a big run (bloodless victory !).
It will certainly be disappointing if he is beaten.
In the 2:20 race, I was initially interested in Strawberry Hill.
He ran well in a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks back.
But what a minefield this race looks to be !
There are at least 3 or 4 in the race who I could see showing much improved form today: Un Anjou, Troufion and Booby Dove all look potentially very interesting.
Strawberry Hill looks the solid option – and I could certainly see him reaching the frame – but with potential dangers all over the place, a watching brief is advised.
As regular readers will know, I love my bumpers – and there is one that really interests me in the finale…
I can’t recall flat trainer, Dean Ivory, having a NH runner before – and Paul Moloney is giving up his Sunday to ride it…
The subtle signs are certainly strong – and I will be watching it with interest…
Carlisle
I tried to find a tip in the staying chase at 3:45 – but I failed…
I did expect to be tipping No Planning on his next run (after a fine seasonal debut at Wetherby) – but I didn’t expect his next run to be over 6 furlongs further !
The one that interests me most in the race, is the bottom weight, Kris Cross.
He is very inexperienced over fences – but is reasonably treated on his hurdling form and could relish todays trip.
However, Monsueir Cadou also has to be of interest.
He was very progressive last season and is Paddy Brennan’s only ride of the day.
It’s difficult to rule out many of the others as well – so on balance, a no bet race…
I could see Snowed In running a fair race in the opener…
I’m not sure quite why (!) but I do like this horse…
His last 2 runs have been over fences – but I’m not convinced he is quite man enough for that job yet.
He will almost certainly travel in the race- so even if he doesn’t win, he is likely to look as if he might !
There are also a couple of interesting small field novice/intermediate chases on he card….
Holywell is a short priced favourite for the first of them – and should win, based on his hurdles rating.
However, he is not an overly big horse so it remains to be seen how he takes to chasing under rules…
Knock a Hand was a disappointment when he was sent over fences early last season, having been a very good novice hurdler the season before.
He will doubtless have been well schooled – and it’s interesting that Richard Johnson travels al the way up to Carlisle for the one ride…
In the 2:40 race, Tap Night has a lot in hand on official ratings – but also a few question marks against him…
Violin Davies is officially the worst horse in the race – but her trainer Harry Fry is sending her a long way to make her seasonal debut.
There must have been other options closer to home – which makes it seem quite an interesting move…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Cork 3:25 Unoccupied 11/1
Hunt 3:30 Night Alliance 7/1
Mentions
Cork 2:50 Sizing Rio
Hunt 2:20 Strawberry Hill
Hunt 4:00 Top Show
Carl 1:00 Snowed In
Carl 1:30 Knock a Hand
Carl 2:40 Violin Davies
Carl 3:45 Kris Cross
In southern Ireland, Cork hosts the best meeting of the day; whilst there are also meetings at Huntingdon and Carlisle in the UK.
As was the case on Friday evening, I was forced to issue a tip the night before because of pressure on the price…
I really don’t like doing this – but my options are limited…
I can either do what I did; leave it until the morning and accept that the price is likely to have gone – or look to find another horse in the race.
If anyone has a real issue with me tipping the night before - in these circumstances - please let me know.
I would really have liked to issue the days other tip last night as well !!
Night Alliance opened up at 11/1 – but was soon cut.
7/1 is a fair enough price – but it is quite a drop on what could have been achieved.
It goes to show how difficult it is to stay ahead, the way we are playing the game.
Still, there is nothing like a challenge, is there :0
On to the rationale for todays tips then…
Cork
3:25
The high-light of the afternoons racing, is the Cork Grand National.
Run over 3 and a half miles on soft ground, this is likely to be an attritional affair.
Ideally, you want a horse with a light weight and proven stamina.
With only 9st 13lb on his back, Unoccupied meets the first criteria - even if he doesn’t meet the second.
That said, he is only 7 years old – and won a PTP over 3 miles in the soft as a 5 year old, so it will be a little surprising if it is a lack of stamina that caches him out.
Certainly, he plugged on well enough on his seasonal debut in heavy ground at Galway, to suggest todays marathon distance will be within his compass.
Time will tell, I guess…
He showed himself to be a gradually progressive animal last season – when 15 runs during the campaign suggested there is little wrong with his constitution !
It is not unreasonable to expect some improvement in his second season under rules and with a pipe-opener under his belt, I can see him running very well today.
Him aside, I was struggling to find much in the race.
It seems significant that Mark Walsh has his only ride of the day aboard the JP McManus owned Tom Horn. However, that one really didn’t look like he was crying out of today’s trip when fading close home over the 3miles of the Munster national.
You obviously have to be fearful of the JP owned horses in this kind of race, the best of whom may prove to be the bottom horse, Sword Fish.
However, he doesn’t look to have the same potential as Unoccupied, whom I am quite happy to have on board as the tip.
0.5pt win Unoccupied 11/1
In the previous race on the card, Felix Younger is expected to maintain his unbeaten record over fences.
He was a very good hurdler (finished second to Simonsig in the 2m4f novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival) and the early signs are that he could be just as good over fences.
If he doesn’t live up to expectations however, I think Sizing Rio could be the one to take advantage.
He was also a fair novice hurdler – and I suspect he will make a better chaser.
An interesting race to watch, whatever the outcome…
Huntingdon
3:30
Initially, I wasn’t overly taken with the Huntington card – but then, as is so often the case, I looked a little deeper – and hey presto !!
Simply, I couldn’t leave Night Alliance untipped (well, I guess if his price had crashed completely, I could have – but you know what I mean !)
He is potentially a very well handicapped horse, running a very weak race.
A combination I’m always on the look out for J
On the downside, prior to his recent come back run, he had been off the course for 18 months. Additionally, I’m a little surprised to see him running over a trip as far as todays - but I’ll put my trust in his trainer.
Certainly, if I ignore those 2 concerns, he looks a tremendous bet.
He won a competitive chase off a mark of 110 – and today gets to run off a mark of 103.
He also showed that he was in really good heart on his comeback run, where he ran and jumped with great enthusiasm, prior to tiring late on.
Provided that run has brought him on, he really should take the beating today.
As I mentioned, this really doesn’t look the strongest of races, with Dom Lukka, a short priced favourite.
He won over course and distance last time out, but a 10lb rise will make life a lot tougher for him today.
Most of that weight rise will be offset by the claim of his rider – but he is replacing Noel Fehily in the saddle, so I would want 7lb for that !
On balance, the rest of the field look beatable, so provided Night Alliance is on his ‘A’ game (or close to it), I think he will take the beating.
0.5pt win Night Alliance 7/1
Earlier on the card, Smad Place makes his chasing debut.
He is already favourite for the RSA chase at the festival, so connections will be hoping for a big run (bloodless victory !).
It will certainly be disappointing if he is beaten.
In the 2:20 race, I was initially interested in Strawberry Hill.
He ran well in a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks back.
But what a minefield this race looks to be !
There are at least 3 or 4 in the race who I could see showing much improved form today: Un Anjou, Troufion and Booby Dove all look potentially very interesting.
Strawberry Hill looks the solid option – and I could certainly see him reaching the frame – but with potential dangers all over the place, a watching brief is advised.
As regular readers will know, I love my bumpers – and there is one that really interests me in the finale…
I can’t recall flat trainer, Dean Ivory, having a NH runner before – and Paul Moloney is giving up his Sunday to ride it…
The subtle signs are certainly strong – and I will be watching it with interest…
Carlisle
I tried to find a tip in the staying chase at 3:45 – but I failed…
I did expect to be tipping No Planning on his next run (after a fine seasonal debut at Wetherby) – but I didn’t expect his next run to be over 6 furlongs further !
The one that interests me most in the race, is the bottom weight, Kris Cross.
He is very inexperienced over fences – but is reasonably treated on his hurdling form and could relish todays trip.
However, Monsueir Cadou also has to be of interest.
He was very progressive last season and is Paddy Brennan’s only ride of the day.
It’s difficult to rule out many of the others as well – so on balance, a no bet race…
I could see Snowed In running a fair race in the opener…
I’m not sure quite why (!) but I do like this horse…
His last 2 runs have been over fences – but I’m not convinced he is quite man enough for that job yet.
He will almost certainly travel in the race- so even if he doesn’t win, he is likely to look as if he might !
There are also a couple of interesting small field novice/intermediate chases on he card….
Holywell is a short priced favourite for the first of them – and should win, based on his hurdles rating.
However, he is not an overly big horse so it remains to be seen how he takes to chasing under rules…
Knock a Hand was a disappointment when he was sent over fences early last season, having been a very good novice hurdler the season before.
He will doubtless have been well schooled – and it’s interesting that Richard Johnson travels al the way up to Carlisle for the one ride…
In the 2:40 race, Tap Night has a lot in hand on official ratings – but also a few question marks against him…
Violin Davies is officially the worst horse in the race – but her trainer Harry Fry is sending her a long way to make her seasonal debut.
There must have been other options closer to home – which makes it seem quite an interesting move…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Cork 3:25 Unoccupied 11/1
Hunt 3:30 Night Alliance 7/1
Mentions
Cork 2:50 Sizing Rio
Hunt 2:20 Strawberry Hill
Hunt 4:00 Top Show
Carl 1:00 Snowed In
Carl 1:30 Knock a Hand
Carl 2:40 Violin Davies
Carl 3:45 Kris Cross
Saturday, 2 November 2013
Review of the day
It’s fair to say, that today wasn’t the best of days – with
no returns from the tips – or even the mentions…
That said, I don’t think it was quite as bleak as those bare
facts would suggest – and we certainly learnt a thing or two…
One of the things we learnt, is that the stable of Venetia
Williams is back in form.
I couldn’t have touched any of her runners before today –
but she managed to bag the 2 big handicap chases at Ascot (plus a third race
late on the card) – thereby scuppering 3 of the days 5 tips…
Her Drumshambo was impressive in wining the first of those 2
races, whilst the 2 tips in the race, never really looked like collecting.
Avoca Promise hit too many fences – and probably needs
dropping back down in grade and a smaller field; whilst Notardbad travelled
well enough to a point, but ultimately didn’t get home. A quicker course or
faster ground would probably suit him…
In the other race, Houblon Des Obeaux was equally impressive
– which was a real shame, as the tip, Merry King, ran a cracker to finish
second !
In truth, I think we can consider ourselves a little unlucky
to have ‘bumped into one’.
Houblon was potentially well handicapped – but it would have
taken a bit of an act of faith to put him up.
These things happen…
Orzare was disappointing earlier on the Ascot card.
As with Avoca Promise, his jumping let him down. He tried to
take the third fence with him, which is never a good idea !
Unfortunately, we are no wiser as to whether he is currently
well handicapped…
The other race on the Ascot card was won by Pine Creek.
He was solid enough in a market that said Chris Pea Green
was the likeliest winner.
The market was wrong – but only just as Chris Pea Green
finished a slightly unlucky second.
He knows a thing or two, this market chap ;)
Over at Wetherby, Long Run was a major disappointment in the
Charlie Hall – and you do have to wonder where he will go from here…
I nominated Cape Tribulation and Harry Topper as likely
dangers – and it was the latter who came through to take the spoils (though the
former who filled the official mention spot).
I would expect Harry Topper to progress from this and become
a force in long distance chances…
He would have to be considered for the Hennessey (if he were
to run in it) – and further down the line, the Gold Cup would also be a
possibility (though I would like to see his jumping improve a little).
The market had anticipated a good run from Captain Sunshine
in the previous race on the card – and he didn’t disappoint.
Unfortunately however, he was unable to reel in Medinas
after the last (unlike Tidal Bay – who managed to do precisely that !)
Whilst L’unique was disappointing in the mare hurdle earlier
on the card, when she was backed down to favouritism. There was nothing between
her and Cockney Sparrow on the book, however in the race, Cockney Sparrow
recorded a gritty victory, whilst L’Unique never featured…
I managed to read the big race at Down Royal pretty well…
I narrowed it down to the 3 outsiders: one of them was a non
runner – and the other 2 finished first and third…
Unfortunately, the official mention took the third spot
(with the patiently ridden Sizing Europe runner up).
I’m not one to criticise jockeys – particularly one as good
as Ruby Walsh – and I won’t here.
That said, I do think that Texas Jack was held up too far
off the pace in a slowly run race…
It was always going to have a lot on as a stayer trying to
quicken past horses who were quickening themselves (and that is ignoring the
inevitable jumping/traffic problems) and so it proved…
He did stay on to some effect to finish third – and I have
little doubt he is one to follow next time out.
It was just a shame that we were on him today !!
Finally at Ayr, as I said, Trucking Along was the horse that
caught my eye in the 3:10 race – I should just have stopped there !
He came home an 11/1 winner, with the official mention
Saphir River, unsighted…
It was one of those days…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Nov 2nd
4 NH meetings today, spread across the length and breadth of the British Isles…
Ascot in the south of England and Wetherby in the North; Ayr on the west coast of Scotland and Down Royal in Northern Ireland.
Do you ever feel like the world is conspiring against you ?!
Day 2 of the service and Pricewise tips the horse I fancy in the big race. I guess this will happen from time to time – and generously, most of the bookmakers revert to early evening prices for a few minutes in the morning, so the impact should be manageable.
However, in order to effectively monitor price movements, I use Oddschecker (which I’m sure most of you do as well). So what happens this morning, when the time for price reversion arrives – oddschecker isn’t working!
You couldn’t make it up !
Hopefully most of you realised that it was just the oddschecker front end that was out of action and if you clicked on a price, you were given the actual price available and not the price it was showing.
I managed to secure some of the 14/1 about Merry King with B365 – and I know of others who got 12/1 with WH and PP.
I will settle him at 10/1, if he does manage to come home in front, as he is still available at that price as I write this….
As an aside, the is a site called odds-comparison.co.uk, which I have as a back-up in case of issues with oddschecker. It doesn’t cover as many bookmakers – but it was definitely of value this morning !
Another downside of oddschecker not updating, is that we have missed a small tip…
I didn’t think there was any pressure on the price – but when I checked on odds-comparison, it had dropped by almost 10 points !
You therefore need to be looking out for another strong mention in the write up !
Which, without further ado, I will now begin…
Ascot
The opening contest looks a complete nightmare and I would recommend the use of a pin to help you find the winner, if you really want to play in it…
The second race on the card is far more interesting – and this is the one where the ‘missing’ tip runs…
In truth, it was going to be quite a speculative tip – but at 25/1, I thought Orzare might reward a small investment…
He showed pretty decent form 18 months ago, when finishing third to Smad Place in a good class handicap hurdle over this course.
He ran 3 more times that season but then clearly had a problem as he wasn’t seen again until 10 days ago at Fontwell.
He ran in a very hot novice chase that day – and was a 50/1 shot. However, he was still in with a chance and moving well, when brought down at the fourth last.
Like I say, there is a fair bit of speculation involved, but the suggestion that day was that he is still capable of performing at a level in the 130s – so as he is officially rated 122, that would make him well handicapped !
Unfortunately, it is not quite as simple as that, as there are some decent horses in today’s race.
Obviously, the favourite, Up to Something sets a good standard, but also Lyvius, Persian Snow and Thunderstorm, could all turn out to be decent animals.
The bet on Orzare was purely about the price.
At 25/1 he was worth a tiny risk – and 16/1, I wasn’t so convinced…
2:10
Next up, the first tips of the day…
I’m actually quite prepared to take on at least half the field in this race – which is always a good place to start.
I respect both Fairy Rath and Greywell Boy – but their form line has been picked up by just about everyone and as a consequence, there is no margin in their prices (particularly as both are making their seasonal debuts today).
Of more interest at bigger prices, at Avoca Promise and Notarfbad.
Both horses were relatively impressive winners on their seasonal debut and whilst both have risen in the weights as a consequence, I believe they could have more to offer…
It is a tight call on which one I favour, but I think I have a slight preference for Avoca Promise (assuming the ground is on the soft side).
I was very taken by his victory at Huntingdon, where I thought he beat a strong field.
He has been raised 7lb for the win and is dropping back half a mile in trip today. However, it was his first run for Tom Symonds and he’d always threatened to be a decent horse, so if Symonds has found the key to him, the rise in the weights should not be insurmountable…
Notarfbad is also a talented performer who seems finally to be getting his act together.
He also won nicely on his seasonal debut and has been raised 6lb for that win.
He drifted significantly in the market that day, so it is not unreasonable to think he might improve for the run.
The jockey booking of the excellent Noel Fehily (in my opinion, just about the best jockey riding at the moment) is huge positive.
0.5pt win Avoca Promise 11/1
0.25pt win Notarfbad 14/1
The handicap hurdle at 2:45 is a very interesting race – but one where I struggled to find an angle…
I think the market will find the winner – which I expect to be well backed.
I reckon the winner is likely to be one of the current top 6 in the betting (as they all have potential to be better than they have shown), but I wouldn’t like to nominate which one.
3:20
This is a real cracker of a race and one which I’m sure will throw up many winners for the rest of the season…
As with the race at Wetherby yesterday, victory for pretty much any member of the field wouldn’t come as a complete surprise.
That said, I do feel that some of the runners are unlikely to be at their peak today – the tricky bit is working out which ones !
My personal short list would consist of Bless the Wings, Wyck Hill, Quinz and Merry King – with the state of the ground a big factor in me deciding which one to plump for…
On decent ground, I would favour Bless the Wings (who might otherwise have stamina issues) and Quinz; but if the ground is deep, Wyck Hill and Merry King would be the choices…
Of course we won’t know the actual state of the ground until the first couple of races have been run – but there has been lots of rain around lately and I struggle to see how it won’t be at least on the slow side.
Therefore, my preferences are Wyck Hill and Merry King – and with the latter being the bigger price (last night anyway !) and with more potential for improvement, I plumped for him !
I can see arguments for many of the others – if they are tuned up – so all in all it looks to be a race to savour.
0.5pt win Merry King 10/1
Wetherby
The high light of the Wetherby card is obviously the re-appearance of Long Run in the Charlie Hall chase…
The ground has come right for him and he is likely to take a lot of beating.
That said, he never looks unbeatable and it wouldn’t be the greatest shock in the world to see him turned over.
If the rain had stayed away, I could have been quite sweet on Benefficient, whom I think is underrated.
However, he has a preference for decent ground – and a question mark over the trip.
AP could work his magic on him – but on balance, I expect him to fade late on…
Long Run could well be the one to take advantage if he does – though I would also give Cape Tribulation and Harry Topper, decent chances.
On balance, Cape Tribulation would probably be the shout at the prices – if forced to play in the race.
However, I am not being forced – so he can just be a mention instead J
Earlier on the card, I thought Lunique looked of interest – particualrly with the Alan King stable in such good form.
However, it looks a competitive race and 7/2 is hardly a stand out price.
Just another mention, I’m afraid…
There is one tip at Wetherby however – and funnily enough, it was just a mention last night – but then the favourite for the race defected and everything took on a different look…
3:00
Purely on official ratings, Captain Sunshine hasn’t got much of a chance in this – but I am hopeful that will prove not to be the case.
He is clearly a quirky character (as TVB subscribers from last season know to their cost !) – but he also has talent.
The suspicion is that he needs things his own way – and he is more likely to get that in small field…
He also needs a decent pace – but Across the Bay should provide that (and could himself be a danger if he is given too much rope up front).
The thing is, with At Fishers Cross out of the equation, the race looks very winnable.
Tidal Bay is quite a short priced favourite and for all his ability, he also has a fair bit of temperament – and will be 13 in just over a months time.
He can certainly win – but at 7/4, he has to be opposed…
Medinas was very progressive last season, but whether he will be at this best first time out – and whether he will actually prove to be a graded performer – remain to be seen.
Trustan Times was at his best first time out last season – but again, he’s yet to fully convince that he is graded level.
In short, there are question marks everywhere you look – and in those circumstances, as I said yesterday, it often pays to look at the outsiders.
Captain Sunshine has plenty of talent – and a fitness edge. At 14/1 he is worth a small play to cause a bit of an upset…
0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1
Down Royal
The highlight of the card is the JNWine Champon chase- and what a race is promises to be…
I’m a massive fan of Sizing Europe. He typifies everything that I love about this game.
He a gorgeous looking horse, who can travel and jump. At his best, he is pure class…
However, the reality is, he is now a little past his best – and 3 miles on rain softened ground is not his cup of tea.
I’m sure he will run a big race – but something will collar him close home…
The question is what…
On decent ground, First Lieutenant would be the shout – but if the ground is riding slow (and I suspect it will be), he too, is vulnerable…
I’m not a fan of Kauto Stone and Mount Benbulben still has a lot to prove (including his fitness).
That therefore leaves the 3 outsiders in the field !
Choosing between them is not an easy task – but if forced to, I would maybe take a chance on Prince De Beauchene, who may be capable of causing an upset…
3:05
However he gets on in the big race, I’m hoping that Ruby Walsh will come good in this contest…
I watch a lot of Irish racing (you really don’t want to know how much !) and I honestly can’t recall Ruby Walsh every getting on a Noel Meade trained horse before (though I may be wrong !).
I’ve no idea why it has come about – but to say it catches the eye, is a bit of an under-statement…
Of course, that in itself wouldn’t be enough to cause me to tip the horse – and thankfully there is a lot more to his case that just the man on top…
Texas Jack was a very decent novice chaser last season, when he placed in 3 grade 1 chases and won a grade 2 chase.
His form really does stand up to the closest scrutiny – and includes 2 decisions over subsequent RSA chase winner, Lord Windermere.
Today’s trip and ground will also be fine for him – so the biggest question marks surround his fitness – and the opposition.
We will have to take his fitness on trust – but it hasn’t been an issue in previous seasons – and whilst the opposition is of a decent quality, there is nothing that really jumps out at me..
In short, Texas Jack looks like a very good bet !!
0.5pt win Texas Jack 6/1
Ayr
I didn’t spend too much time on the Ayr card (there are only so many hours in a day !) – but I did look at the 3:10 race…
The horse that initially took my eye was Trucking Along. He was a disappointing favourite at Wetherby last time out but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back to form this afternoon.
That said, todays 2 mile trip really doesn’t look far enough for him, so I would have to pass him over.
Instead, I would opt for Saphir River.
He cost a kings ransom a few year aback – but has generally been disappointing.
However, he won a decent novice chase on his seasonal debut last year, so maybe first time out is the time to catch him.
Trip and ground look fine – and the price is OK.
A solid Mention IMO :;)
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!
TVB.
Tips
Asc 2:10 Avoca Promise 11/1
Asc 2:10 Notarfbad 14/1
Asc 3:20 Merry King 10/1
Weth 3:00 Captain Sunshine 14/1
DR 3:05 Texas Jack 6/1
Mentions
Asc 1:35 Orzare
Asc 3:20 Bless the Wings (if the ground is good)
Weth 1:50 Lunique
Weth 3:35 Cape Tribulation
DR 2:30 Prince De Beauchene
Ayr 3:10 Saphir River
Ascot in the south of England and Wetherby in the North; Ayr on the west coast of Scotland and Down Royal in Northern Ireland.
Do you ever feel like the world is conspiring against you ?!
Day 2 of the service and Pricewise tips the horse I fancy in the big race. I guess this will happen from time to time – and generously, most of the bookmakers revert to early evening prices for a few minutes in the morning, so the impact should be manageable.
However, in order to effectively monitor price movements, I use Oddschecker (which I’m sure most of you do as well). So what happens this morning, when the time for price reversion arrives – oddschecker isn’t working!
You couldn’t make it up !
Hopefully most of you realised that it was just the oddschecker front end that was out of action and if you clicked on a price, you were given the actual price available and not the price it was showing.
I managed to secure some of the 14/1 about Merry King with B365 – and I know of others who got 12/1 with WH and PP.
I will settle him at 10/1, if he does manage to come home in front, as he is still available at that price as I write this….
As an aside, the is a site called odds-comparison.co.uk, which I have as a back-up in case of issues with oddschecker. It doesn’t cover as many bookmakers – but it was definitely of value this morning !
Another downside of oddschecker not updating, is that we have missed a small tip…
I didn’t think there was any pressure on the price – but when I checked on odds-comparison, it had dropped by almost 10 points !
You therefore need to be looking out for another strong mention in the write up !
Which, without further ado, I will now begin…
Ascot
The opening contest looks a complete nightmare and I would recommend the use of a pin to help you find the winner, if you really want to play in it…
The second race on the card is far more interesting – and this is the one where the ‘missing’ tip runs…
In truth, it was going to be quite a speculative tip – but at 25/1, I thought Orzare might reward a small investment…
He showed pretty decent form 18 months ago, when finishing third to Smad Place in a good class handicap hurdle over this course.
He ran 3 more times that season but then clearly had a problem as he wasn’t seen again until 10 days ago at Fontwell.
He ran in a very hot novice chase that day – and was a 50/1 shot. However, he was still in with a chance and moving well, when brought down at the fourth last.
Like I say, there is a fair bit of speculation involved, but the suggestion that day was that he is still capable of performing at a level in the 130s – so as he is officially rated 122, that would make him well handicapped !
Unfortunately, it is not quite as simple as that, as there are some decent horses in today’s race.
Obviously, the favourite, Up to Something sets a good standard, but also Lyvius, Persian Snow and Thunderstorm, could all turn out to be decent animals.
The bet on Orzare was purely about the price.
At 25/1 he was worth a tiny risk – and 16/1, I wasn’t so convinced…
2:10
Next up, the first tips of the day…
I’m actually quite prepared to take on at least half the field in this race – which is always a good place to start.
I respect both Fairy Rath and Greywell Boy – but their form line has been picked up by just about everyone and as a consequence, there is no margin in their prices (particularly as both are making their seasonal debuts today).
Of more interest at bigger prices, at Avoca Promise and Notarfbad.
Both horses were relatively impressive winners on their seasonal debut and whilst both have risen in the weights as a consequence, I believe they could have more to offer…
It is a tight call on which one I favour, but I think I have a slight preference for Avoca Promise (assuming the ground is on the soft side).
I was very taken by his victory at Huntingdon, where I thought he beat a strong field.
He has been raised 7lb for the win and is dropping back half a mile in trip today. However, it was his first run for Tom Symonds and he’d always threatened to be a decent horse, so if Symonds has found the key to him, the rise in the weights should not be insurmountable…
Notarfbad is also a talented performer who seems finally to be getting his act together.
He also won nicely on his seasonal debut and has been raised 6lb for that win.
He drifted significantly in the market that day, so it is not unreasonable to think he might improve for the run.
The jockey booking of the excellent Noel Fehily (in my opinion, just about the best jockey riding at the moment) is huge positive.
0.5pt win Avoca Promise 11/1
0.25pt win Notarfbad 14/1
The handicap hurdle at 2:45 is a very interesting race – but one where I struggled to find an angle…
I think the market will find the winner – which I expect to be well backed.
I reckon the winner is likely to be one of the current top 6 in the betting (as they all have potential to be better than they have shown), but I wouldn’t like to nominate which one.
3:20
This is a real cracker of a race and one which I’m sure will throw up many winners for the rest of the season…
As with the race at Wetherby yesterday, victory for pretty much any member of the field wouldn’t come as a complete surprise.
That said, I do feel that some of the runners are unlikely to be at their peak today – the tricky bit is working out which ones !
My personal short list would consist of Bless the Wings, Wyck Hill, Quinz and Merry King – with the state of the ground a big factor in me deciding which one to plump for…
On decent ground, I would favour Bless the Wings (who might otherwise have stamina issues) and Quinz; but if the ground is deep, Wyck Hill and Merry King would be the choices…
Of course we won’t know the actual state of the ground until the first couple of races have been run – but there has been lots of rain around lately and I struggle to see how it won’t be at least on the slow side.
Therefore, my preferences are Wyck Hill and Merry King – and with the latter being the bigger price (last night anyway !) and with more potential for improvement, I plumped for him !
I can see arguments for many of the others – if they are tuned up – so all in all it looks to be a race to savour.
0.5pt win Merry King 10/1
Wetherby
The high light of the Wetherby card is obviously the re-appearance of Long Run in the Charlie Hall chase…
The ground has come right for him and he is likely to take a lot of beating.
That said, he never looks unbeatable and it wouldn’t be the greatest shock in the world to see him turned over.
If the rain had stayed away, I could have been quite sweet on Benefficient, whom I think is underrated.
However, he has a preference for decent ground – and a question mark over the trip.
AP could work his magic on him – but on balance, I expect him to fade late on…
Long Run could well be the one to take advantage if he does – though I would also give Cape Tribulation and Harry Topper, decent chances.
On balance, Cape Tribulation would probably be the shout at the prices – if forced to play in the race.
However, I am not being forced – so he can just be a mention instead J
Earlier on the card, I thought Lunique looked of interest – particualrly with the Alan King stable in such good form.
However, it looks a competitive race and 7/2 is hardly a stand out price.
Just another mention, I’m afraid…
There is one tip at Wetherby however – and funnily enough, it was just a mention last night – but then the favourite for the race defected and everything took on a different look…
3:00
Purely on official ratings, Captain Sunshine hasn’t got much of a chance in this – but I am hopeful that will prove not to be the case.
He is clearly a quirky character (as TVB subscribers from last season know to their cost !) – but he also has talent.
The suspicion is that he needs things his own way – and he is more likely to get that in small field…
He also needs a decent pace – but Across the Bay should provide that (and could himself be a danger if he is given too much rope up front).
The thing is, with At Fishers Cross out of the equation, the race looks very winnable.
Tidal Bay is quite a short priced favourite and for all his ability, he also has a fair bit of temperament – and will be 13 in just over a months time.
He can certainly win – but at 7/4, he has to be opposed…
Medinas was very progressive last season, but whether he will be at this best first time out – and whether he will actually prove to be a graded performer – remain to be seen.
Trustan Times was at his best first time out last season – but again, he’s yet to fully convince that he is graded level.
In short, there are question marks everywhere you look – and in those circumstances, as I said yesterday, it often pays to look at the outsiders.
Captain Sunshine has plenty of talent – and a fitness edge. At 14/1 he is worth a small play to cause a bit of an upset…
0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1
Down Royal
The highlight of the card is the JNWine Champon chase- and what a race is promises to be…
I’m a massive fan of Sizing Europe. He typifies everything that I love about this game.
He a gorgeous looking horse, who can travel and jump. At his best, he is pure class…
However, the reality is, he is now a little past his best – and 3 miles on rain softened ground is not his cup of tea.
I’m sure he will run a big race – but something will collar him close home…
The question is what…
On decent ground, First Lieutenant would be the shout – but if the ground is riding slow (and I suspect it will be), he too, is vulnerable…
I’m not a fan of Kauto Stone and Mount Benbulben still has a lot to prove (including his fitness).
That therefore leaves the 3 outsiders in the field !
Choosing between them is not an easy task – but if forced to, I would maybe take a chance on Prince De Beauchene, who may be capable of causing an upset…
3:05
However he gets on in the big race, I’m hoping that Ruby Walsh will come good in this contest…
I watch a lot of Irish racing (you really don’t want to know how much !) and I honestly can’t recall Ruby Walsh every getting on a Noel Meade trained horse before (though I may be wrong !).
I’ve no idea why it has come about – but to say it catches the eye, is a bit of an under-statement…
Of course, that in itself wouldn’t be enough to cause me to tip the horse – and thankfully there is a lot more to his case that just the man on top…
Texas Jack was a very decent novice chaser last season, when he placed in 3 grade 1 chases and won a grade 2 chase.
His form really does stand up to the closest scrutiny – and includes 2 decisions over subsequent RSA chase winner, Lord Windermere.
Today’s trip and ground will also be fine for him – so the biggest question marks surround his fitness – and the opposition.
We will have to take his fitness on trust – but it hasn’t been an issue in previous seasons – and whilst the opposition is of a decent quality, there is nothing that really jumps out at me..
In short, Texas Jack looks like a very good bet !!
0.5pt win Texas Jack 6/1
Ayr
I didn’t spend too much time on the Ayr card (there are only so many hours in a day !) – but I did look at the 3:10 race…
The horse that initially took my eye was Trucking Along. He was a disappointing favourite at Wetherby last time out but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back to form this afternoon.
That said, todays 2 mile trip really doesn’t look far enough for him, so I would have to pass him over.
Instead, I would opt for Saphir River.
He cost a kings ransom a few year aback – but has generally been disappointing.
However, he won a decent novice chase on his seasonal debut last year, so maybe first time out is the time to catch him.
Trip and ground look fine – and the price is OK.
A solid Mention IMO :;)
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!
TVB.
Tips
Asc 2:10 Avoca Promise 11/1
Asc 2:10 Notarfbad 14/1
Asc 3:20 Merry King 10/1
Weth 3:00 Captain Sunshine 14/1
DR 3:05 Texas Jack 6/1
Mentions
Asc 1:35 Orzare
Asc 3:20 Bless the Wings (if the ground is good)
Weth 1:50 Lunique
Weth 3:35 Cape Tribulation
DR 2:30 Prince De Beauchene
Ayr 3:10 Saphir River
Friday, 1 November 2013
Review of the day
Whilst going through the process of taking on new
subscribers during the past month, I have kept on emphasising the importance of
reading the daily write-up – and how the tips simply can’t do justice to the TVB
service…
I went on so much, that I managed to put off 2 or 3
people – but after today, I felt completely vindicated in my line…
Last night, it was my intention to tip Hartside today
(just EW to a minimum stake). However, I wanted a bigger price than was available first
thing this morning.
I then found Triptico and although his price was
shortening, I still felt he represented a bit of value, so I settled on him
instead.
Of course, the rest is history:
Hartside battled on bravely to record a victory – whilst
Triptico ran with credit, but could only manage fourth place (he must have known
I had put him up EW !).
The nett result was a 0.5pt loss for the P&L – but I
will be very disappointed if that is the case for most of you…
Simply, anyone who read the write-up should have been on
Hartside - and everyone who subscribes to the service, should read the write-ups
!
I’d love to get all the calls right – but it is never
going to happen.
Most days, I have an hour long window in which I have to
make my decisions.
I either have to take the prices available at that point
in time – or pass on them.
I would really have liked to tip Triptico at 25/1 last
night – but I couldn’t.
Similarly, I considered tipping Hartside when he hit 25/1
at around 10:30 this morning – but by then, the window had closed…
At the end of the day though, this service isn’t about my
official P&L, it’s about how much you guys can make from using my
knowledge.
Hopefully some of you made a little today…
Anyway, onto a review of the action:
Oscar Rock was successful in the first at Wetherby –
though he will need to brush up his jumping if he is to hold his own in more
exalted company.
A quick word on Tripticos race…
I really couldn’t have foreseen that result – but I could
see a flaw in all of the main contenders.
In those circumstances, it is always worth examining at
the bottom end of the market. I wouldn’t have found Ultimate - but at 25/1, I
would have been looking in the right area !
Lookout Mountain ran a fair race in the finale – though
he could only plug on and ultimately finished fourth.
Over at Uttoxeter, Milord bumped into one in the
opener.
Carraig Mor was as impressive as any horse I’ve seen so
far this season. Expect to see me writing his name a few more times before the
season is out !
Raya Star got the better of Tenerko Emery in the novice
chase – though I would expect the runner up to take his revenge if the 2 met
again.
Forest Walker did hack up in the handicap chase – and
with the benefit of hindsight, 5/2 wasn’t bad price ! (nevermind the SP of 11/4
!)
However, Smiles for Miles was a little disappointing the
bumper.
Tom Scudamore did the miles and got back for the ride –
but Wilde Blue Yonder was much too good for him and completed a treble on the
day for Alan King and Robert Thornton.
At Down Royal, King of Brega dotted up in the handicap
hurdle (I wonder how many pounds he’ll get for that !); whilst Gambling Girl was
impressive in the mares hurdle (she could take high rank in that arena, this
season).
Jezki was comfortable – if not overly impressive – in
victory. His next run will doubtless tell us more about him.
Rye Martini was a little disappointing the novice chase –
though his cause wasn’t really helped by his jockey, Davy Russell who seemed to
be intent on teaching the amateur on Howwoulduno a lesson in jockey etiquette !
(he tried to come up Davys inner !).
In truth, it made little difference to the result, but
Howwoulduno ran a creditable race in the circumstances and could be one to
follow next time, is slightly lesser company.
Finally, I know that not all of you have chosen to access
the blog – which is fine.
However, there is a chance of a small ‘community’
building up there on the back of the daily posts…
Ciaran put up an interesting comment today, telling
people about an online bookmaker, who match the prices offered by Boylesports.
For those of you without access to the forum, the company
are called Macleans (www.betmaclean.com) and probably worth a look if you are after options for
getting on…
If any more of you would like access to the blog, just
drop me a note.
On to tomorrow then…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Nov 1st
3 NH meetings today: 2 in England; whilst Down Royal hosts its big meeting of the year, in the north of Ireland.
There are some decent contests at all 3 tracks – and some decent horses will also be on show.
Things are certainly starting to come together….
Just the one tip on the day however – and a small one at that.
I did toy with a second – and I also considered a higher stake on the tip – but I feel it is best to initially proceed with a degree of caution – at least until I feel I’m properly in the groove.
You will all notice the slight change in format, which I intend to use this season.
Having the tips – and the mentions at the bottom of the email, should provide you with a quick point of reference for the days action.
You should then be able to refer back to the detail, for the rationale behind me fancying a particular horse.
Formalising the mentions will also hopefully prove to be useful. It should certainly enable me to see more clearly, when my judgement comes into focus (assuming it does !).
Seeing mentions winning will be frustrating in the short-term – but it will provide me with a clearer trigger for moving more of them across to be tips…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – and on to the days action…
Wetherby
One of the most interesting horses running today, appears in the very first race.
Oscar Rock was officially the second best bumper horse of last season – and he makes his hurdling debut today
He has been transferred into the care of Malcom Jefferson (from Harry Fry) during the summer and it will be a big surprise if he doesn’t open his account over hurdles at the first time of asking.
Very much one to watch for the future…
I got perilously close to tipping in the 1:40 race…
In fact, if the prices available whilst I am writing this, had been available when the tipping window was open, Hartside would have been another 0.25pt EW bet.
He was a 16/1 shot early – but he is now 25/1 in places, and I think he is worth a risk at that price.
He was a progressive performer on the flat in Ireland, 18 months ago – so much so, that Gigginstown paid a fair amount for him.
He did win a novice hurdle last season – though that was in fortuitous circumstances and it is fair to say he was generally disappointing.
They off loaded him in the summer and he was picked up by Peter Winks for a relaive pittance.
He’s not a trainer I know anything about - but he seems to run a very small operation.
Little surprise then, that Hartside seemed to need his first run for him – but them improved quite markedly on his second outing.
My guess is that he will improve again further today – and that makes him potentially interesting, at a very big price.
Clearly, there are a lot of unknowns in opposition – but we do know that Hartside was decent on the flat and therefore has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current 109 rating over hurdles.
A very strong mention !!
2:10
This is undoubtedly the race of the day – and I have to say that on initial inspection, I had no intention of tipping in it…
There are 13 runners – and victory for almost any of them, would come as no great surprise.
On the flip side, pretty much every runner has also got a fairly big question mark against it – classically then, a watching race…
However, price is everything in this game, so I had a quick look at the outsiders…
When I looked last night, Triptico was the complete outsider of the field – a general 20/1 shot and 25/1 in a place.
Examining his form, that price seemed wrong to me – and by a fair degree.
He is a young, progressive horse, who has only had 11 life time runs.
He has been placed on every outing bar 1 - which was over 3 miles (a trip he probably found too far).
He has run well on his seasonal debut every year – and has form with some serious horses (Highland Lodge, Harry Topper and Same Difference, to name just 3).
He also has a verdict over the favourite for todays race, Noble Legend – and is better off at the weights with that one.
He will be well suited by todays trip and ground and is the only runner on todays card for both Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…
At 25/1, he would have been 0.5pt EW – at 16/1 I’ve made him 0.25pt.
He should probably be staked somewhere between the 2…
As I said, I could give a chance to the majority of the opposition.
Mon Perrain could easily bounce back to form of a fair enough mark; I would expect Easter Meteor to run much better than he did at Cheltenham (where an early mistake did for his chances); Cantlow clearly has potential off his current mark – whilst Duke of Lucca is handicapped to win and will doubtless be given an aggressive ride over his minimum trip.
Noble Legend and Green Wizard are both very progressive – whilst Silver Roque could be given a definite chance, if his stable were in better form.
I have bigger question marks over the remainder (class, trip or fitness) – but even so, there are enough dangers to leave me anything but confident.
That said, I do think Triptico represent value – and ultimately, that is what it is all about !
0.25pt EW Triptico 16/1
In the following race, it looks significant that Tom Scudamore is prepared to leg it over from Uttoxeter to ride Ainsi Fideles.
That said, it looks even more significant that he is then apparently going to leg it back to ride Smiles for Miles in the last there !
Don’t let that one pass if he is on board.
In the finale at Wetherby, I was quite interested in Lookout Mountain for Jonjo.
Keep an eye of the mounts of Mauice Linehan this season – I still think he could go places.
The horse was 4/1 early – which was too short. 7/1 is now available and that is far more appealing…
Uttoxeter
Not quite such a good card – but definitely one worth watching with an eye to the future…
Milord sets a fair standard in the opener – and 7/2 is a fair price.
Katnapping is a horse that always interest me…
He runs in the 1:50 – though presumably so that Long Run isn’t Sam Waley Cohen’s first ride in months, when he turns up for the Charlie Hall xhase at Wetherby tomorrow.
The best race on the card is the novice chase at 2:20.
It is possible to make a case for the 3 main protagonist – but, provided he jumps OK, I would expect Raya Star to have a bit too much class…
Forest Walker was the nearest I got to a tip at Uttoxeter – but not at 5/2…
I think he could be a lot better than his mark – but he has got to prove that and the opposition isn’t a walk over.
He may hack up – but at the prices, I’m prepared to watch…
Finally, the bumper, which as I said earlier, I would expect Smiles for Miles to take some beating in – provided Tom Scudamore is on board…
Down Royal
The high light of the card, is the seasonal reappearance of Jezki…
This race shouldn’t really tell us too much about him (other than confirming he still has 4 legs and an engine !).
I would be very surprised if he were beaten – and would choose Flaxen Flare to follow him home.
The other race that interests me on the card, is the novice chase at 3:10.
Teelin Star was in the process of running a very big race, when he fell at Wexford last time.
If this was less competitive I could have been interested in him – but it is competitive !
Seefood was probably the best of his opponents over hurdles – but Rye Martini looks the sort to make his name over fences.
Very much a race to watch for the future.
Here’s hoping for a great start to the new season !
TVB.
Tips
Weth 2:10 Triptico 16/1
Mentions
Weth 1:40 Hartside
Weth 3:55 Lookout Mountain
Uttox 12:50 Milord
Uttox 3:30 Forest Walker
Uttox 4:05 Smiles for Miles
DR 3:10 Rye Martini
There are some decent contests at all 3 tracks – and some decent horses will also be on show.
Things are certainly starting to come together….
Just the one tip on the day however – and a small one at that.
I did toy with a second – and I also considered a higher stake on the tip – but I feel it is best to initially proceed with a degree of caution – at least until I feel I’m properly in the groove.
You will all notice the slight change in format, which I intend to use this season.
Having the tips – and the mentions at the bottom of the email, should provide you with a quick point of reference for the days action.
You should then be able to refer back to the detail, for the rationale behind me fancying a particular horse.
Formalising the mentions will also hopefully prove to be useful. It should certainly enable me to see more clearly, when my judgement comes into focus (assuming it does !).
Seeing mentions winning will be frustrating in the short-term – but it will provide me with a clearer trigger for moving more of them across to be tips…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – and on to the days action…
Wetherby
One of the most interesting horses running today, appears in the very first race.
Oscar Rock was officially the second best bumper horse of last season – and he makes his hurdling debut today
He has been transferred into the care of Malcom Jefferson (from Harry Fry) during the summer and it will be a big surprise if he doesn’t open his account over hurdles at the first time of asking.
Very much one to watch for the future…
I got perilously close to tipping in the 1:40 race…
In fact, if the prices available whilst I am writing this, had been available when the tipping window was open, Hartside would have been another 0.25pt EW bet.
He was a 16/1 shot early – but he is now 25/1 in places, and I think he is worth a risk at that price.
He was a progressive performer on the flat in Ireland, 18 months ago – so much so, that Gigginstown paid a fair amount for him.
He did win a novice hurdle last season – though that was in fortuitous circumstances and it is fair to say he was generally disappointing.
They off loaded him in the summer and he was picked up by Peter Winks for a relaive pittance.
He’s not a trainer I know anything about - but he seems to run a very small operation.
Little surprise then, that Hartside seemed to need his first run for him – but them improved quite markedly on his second outing.
My guess is that he will improve again further today – and that makes him potentially interesting, at a very big price.
Clearly, there are a lot of unknowns in opposition – but we do know that Hartside was decent on the flat and therefore has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current 109 rating over hurdles.
A very strong mention !!
2:10
This is undoubtedly the race of the day – and I have to say that on initial inspection, I had no intention of tipping in it…
There are 13 runners – and victory for almost any of them, would come as no great surprise.
On the flip side, pretty much every runner has also got a fairly big question mark against it – classically then, a watching race…
However, price is everything in this game, so I had a quick look at the outsiders…
When I looked last night, Triptico was the complete outsider of the field – a general 20/1 shot and 25/1 in a place.
Examining his form, that price seemed wrong to me – and by a fair degree.
He is a young, progressive horse, who has only had 11 life time runs.
He has been placed on every outing bar 1 - which was over 3 miles (a trip he probably found too far).
He has run well on his seasonal debut every year – and has form with some serious horses (Highland Lodge, Harry Topper and Same Difference, to name just 3).
He also has a verdict over the favourite for todays race, Noble Legend – and is better off at the weights with that one.
He will be well suited by todays trip and ground and is the only runner on todays card for both Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…
At 25/1, he would have been 0.5pt EW – at 16/1 I’ve made him 0.25pt.
He should probably be staked somewhere between the 2…
As I said, I could give a chance to the majority of the opposition.
Mon Perrain could easily bounce back to form of a fair enough mark; I would expect Easter Meteor to run much better than he did at Cheltenham (where an early mistake did for his chances); Cantlow clearly has potential off his current mark – whilst Duke of Lucca is handicapped to win and will doubtless be given an aggressive ride over his minimum trip.
Noble Legend and Green Wizard are both very progressive – whilst Silver Roque could be given a definite chance, if his stable were in better form.
I have bigger question marks over the remainder (class, trip or fitness) – but even so, there are enough dangers to leave me anything but confident.
That said, I do think Triptico represent value – and ultimately, that is what it is all about !
0.25pt EW Triptico 16/1
In the following race, it looks significant that Tom Scudamore is prepared to leg it over from Uttoxeter to ride Ainsi Fideles.
That said, it looks even more significant that he is then apparently going to leg it back to ride Smiles for Miles in the last there !
Don’t let that one pass if he is on board.
In the finale at Wetherby, I was quite interested in Lookout Mountain for Jonjo.
Keep an eye of the mounts of Mauice Linehan this season – I still think he could go places.
The horse was 4/1 early – which was too short. 7/1 is now available and that is far more appealing…
Uttoxeter
Not quite such a good card – but definitely one worth watching with an eye to the future…
Milord sets a fair standard in the opener – and 7/2 is a fair price.
Katnapping is a horse that always interest me…
He runs in the 1:50 – though presumably so that Long Run isn’t Sam Waley Cohen’s first ride in months, when he turns up for the Charlie Hall xhase at Wetherby tomorrow.
The best race on the card is the novice chase at 2:20.
It is possible to make a case for the 3 main protagonist – but, provided he jumps OK, I would expect Raya Star to have a bit too much class…
Forest Walker was the nearest I got to a tip at Uttoxeter – but not at 5/2…
I think he could be a lot better than his mark – but he has got to prove that and the opposition isn’t a walk over.
He may hack up – but at the prices, I’m prepared to watch…
Finally, the bumper, which as I said earlier, I would expect Smiles for Miles to take some beating in – provided Tom Scudamore is on board…
Down Royal
The high light of the card, is the seasonal reappearance of Jezki…
This race shouldn’t really tell us too much about him (other than confirming he still has 4 legs and an engine !).
I would be very surprised if he were beaten – and would choose Flaxen Flare to follow him home.
The other race that interests me on the card, is the novice chase at 3:10.
Teelin Star was in the process of running a very big race, when he fell at Wexford last time.
If this was less competitive I could have been interested in him – but it is competitive !
Seefood was probably the best of his opponents over hurdles – but Rye Martini looks the sort to make his name over fences.
Very much a race to watch for the future.
Here’s hoping for a great start to the new season !
TVB.
Tips
Weth 2:10 Triptico 16/1
Mentions
Weth 1:40 Hartside
Weth 3:55 Lookout Mountain
Uttox 12:50 Milord
Uttox 3:30 Forest Walker
Uttox 4:05 Smiles for Miles
DR 3:10 Rye Martini
Sunday, 8 September 2013
Welcome !
Although I will be sending out all tips/write-ups/reviews to subscribers via email, I will be recording them all here as well...
Obviously, as you will be receiving the information via email, you will not need to access this blog on a daily basis - however, it will sit here as a growing repository for all my thoughts on the current season.
Its value will therefore increase as the season progresses - with it becoming most valuable as a point of reference, for the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
I really don't expect it to be very active - but if you would like to make a comment on it, which you feel may be of value to other subscribers, then feel free !
As you will have established by now (!) you can only read the blog if you are a TVB subscriber. I believe that the content of the blog has as much value as the tips themselves, so it is therefore only going to be accessible by subscribers...
Hopefully you will all find this blog of value. My ethos is
very much to help people develop a better understand NH racing – and the horses
that compete in the sport. I would hope that regular reference to this blog,
throughout the season, will help achieve this objective.
Here’s to a great season ahead !
TVB.
TVB.
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